'The flood is coming': Coronavirus could spur unprecedented wave of business bankruptcies

“洪水就要来了”:冠状病毒可能会引发前所未有的企业破产浪潮

Alexis Keenan 亚历克西斯基南

April 24, 2020, 4:04 AM GMT+8

2020年4月24日，格林尼治标准时间上午4:04 +8

Business bankruptcy filings year-to-date are trending slightly higher compared with the same period last year, but industry experts warn the seemingly moderate escalation obscures the reality of a spike in fillings to come in the wake of the novel coronavirus pandemic.

与去年同期相比，今年迄今的企业破产申请呈小幅上升趋势，但行业专家警告称，这种看似温和的上升掩盖了一个事实，即在新型冠状病毒大流行之后，填充物的数量将出现激增。

“I think we will see bankruptcy activity on a scale that has not been seen in anybody’s business lifetime,” James Hammond, CEO of New Generation Research, Inc., which tracks business bankruptcy filings, told Yahoo Finance.

追踪企业破产申请的新一代研究公司(New Generation Research, Inc.)首席执行官詹姆斯•哈蒙德(James Hammond)对雅虎财经(Yahoo Finance)表示:“我认为，我们将看到破产活动的规模，是任何人商业生涯中从未见过的。”

Chapter 11 filings, which give business debtors relief from creditors in order to reorganize and emerge with their companies intact, totaled 2,063 from Jan. 1-April 21, versus 1,736 through the same period last year. Chapter 7 filings, which involve liquidating a business, for the same period were about level year over year, with 1,262 so far this year, versus 1,253 in 2019. But experts expect the numbers to rise dramatically.

从1月1日至4月21日，根据破产法第11章申请破产保护的企业共有2,063家，去年同期为1,736家。与此同时，涉及清算一家企业的破产法第7章(Chapter 7)破产申请数量与去年同期持平，今年迄今为1262起，而2019年为1253起。但专家预计这一数字将大幅上升。

“The flood is coming,” Nick Montgomery, also of New Generation, said. “It has just been slightly delayed as companies resist succumbing, and the markets try and figure out how to triage all of the corporate patients.”

“洪水就要来了，”同样来自新一代的尼克·蒙哥马利(Nick Montgomery)说。“由于企业不愿屈服，而且市场试图找出对所有企业患者进行分流的方法，所以它只是被略微推迟了。”

On Thursday, fresh data showed 4.427 Americans had filed for unemployment for the week ending April 18 — in another sign that businesses are struggling and bankruptcies could be coming soon.

周四公布的最新数据显示，截至4月18日当周，已有4.427名美国人申请失业救济，这是企业陷入困境和破产即将来临的又一个迹象。

“In this recession that we have had over basically five weeks of unemployment claims going up — what’s missing so far is major bankruptcies on the part of any corporation,” MUFG Chief Financial Economist Chris Rupkey told Yahoo Finance’s YFi PM on Thursday. “... I’m just wondering if that’s the other shoe to drop.”

MUFG首席金融分析师Chris Rupkey周四对雅虎财经的YFi PM表示，"在这场经济衰退中，申请失业救济人数基本上持续了五个多星期，但迄今为止，任何企业都没有出现大规模破产。"“…我只是想知道这是不是另一个问题。”

Why haven’t bankruptcies already skyrocketed?

为什么破产还没有激增?

While the current filing numbers look benign on their face, there are several reasons filings have not already skyrocketed despite COVID-19’s shutdown of the U.S. economy since March.

虽然目前的申请数量表面上看起来不错，但有几个原因说明，尽管covid19自3月以来关闭了美国经济，但申请数量并没有大幅增加。

Harvard Law professor, Mark Roe, told Yahoo Finance that part of the delay is due to the fact that most companies, when hit with a shock, will exhaust cash sources first, and file for bankruptcy only when they have no other choice. Cash resources contributing to a delay could include the grants and loans made available to small and large businesses through the CARES Act, the $2.2 trillion coronavirus stimulus billpassed by Congress last month.

哈佛大学法学教授Mark Roe告诉雅虎财经，推迟的部分原因是，大多数公司在受到冲击时，首先会耗尽现金来源，只有在别无选择的情况下才会申请破产。造成延迟的现金来源可能包括通过CARES法案向大小企业提供的赠款和*款贷**。CARES法案是上个月国会通过的价值2.2万亿美元的冠状病毒刺激法案。

“Even if a company isn't selling anything now, if it has some cash in the bank, or can draw on a bank line, or can somehow just push things along to kick the can down the road most companies will try to do that,” he said, adding that small businesses that have already entered bankruptcy are not eligible for the Act’s Payroll Protection Program.

“即使一个公司不出售任何现在,如果它有一些现金在银行里,或者可以利用银行信贷额度,或能推动事情的是道路大多数公司都试图这么做,”他说,并补充道,小型企业已经进入破产不合格行为的工资保护计划。

Roe estimated that if the economy continues on its current trend, a surge in bankruptcies should be expected around September or October. In addition, he said, historical correlations exist between increased claims for unemployment and business bankruptcy filings.

Roe估计，如果经济继续以目前的趋势发展，那么破产案件将在9月或10月激增。此外，他说，申请失业救济人数的增加与企业破产申请之间存在历史相关性。

“When unemployment claims shoot up, you tend to get an increase in bankruptcy filings three to six months later,” he said. On the other hand, a treatment for COVID-19 that turns the economy around could prevent such a scenario. “If it doesn't, we should expect a surge,” Roe said.

"当申请失业救济人数激增时，三到六个月后申请破产的人数往往会增加，"他说。另一方面，对扭转经济的COVID-19的治疗可以防止这种情况的发生。“如果它没有，我们应该期待一个激增，”Roe说。

There are other factors at play that could be delaying bankruptcies, including social distancing. That makes it challenging, if not impossible, for prospective creditors and liquidation buyers to evaluate and market a debtor’s residual assets, steps required to move cases forward, according to Hammond.

还有其他因素在起作用，可能会推迟破产，包括社会疏远。哈蒙德表示，这使得潜在债权人和清算买家很难(如果不是不可能的话)评估和推销债务人的剩余资产，这些步骤是推动案件进展所必需的。

“If you're having a liquidation event and nobody can show up to buy the liquidated material, then you have a price collapse, and that's just simple supply and demand,” Hammond said. Even at a bargain basement price, he said getting rid of certain assets is a problem for both Chapter 7 and Chapter 11 filers, because nobody can go out to purchase the goods.

哈蒙德说:“如果发生清算事件，没有人来购买清算后的材料，那么价格就会崩溃，这就是简单的供求关系。”他说，即使以很低的价格出售某些资产，对根据破产法第7章和第11章申请破产保护的人来说都是一个问题，因为没有人可以去购买这些商品。

The problem hit New York City-based retailer, Modell’s Sporting Goods, whichfiled for Chapter 11 on March 11, and asked the court permit it to “mothball” operations after state governments ordered nonessential business closures that slowed its ability to conduct liquidation sales. The court granted a 30-day pause, and Modell’s subsequently asked for an additional 60-day reprieve.

这一问题打击了总部位于纽约的零售商Modell 's Sporting Goods。该公司于3月11日申请破产保护，并请求法院允许其“封存”业务。此前，州政府下令关闭一些无关紧要的业务，降低了其进行清算销售的能力。法庭批准了30天的暂缓执行，随后莫德尔又要求60天的暂缓执行。

The shaky ground on which debtors and creditors stand poses an additional hurdle for prospective Chapter 11 filers, because the proceedings typically rely not only on a company’s ability to liquidate assets, but also on its ability to obtain financing for everyday activity with debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing. Such financing is increasingly hard to come by.

债务人和债权人的立场摇摆不定，为申请破产保护的人带来了额外的障碍，因为破产程序通常不仅依赖于公司清算资产的能力，还依赖于公司通过债务人持有资产(DIP)融资为日常活动获得融资的能力。这样的融资越来越难获得。

Very few creditors are currently lending to sick companies, aside from those already committed to funding before the novel coronavirus struck, according to Montgomery. “Even healthy [companies] are scrambling to get financing,” he said.

根据Montgomery的说法，除了那些在新型冠状病毒袭击前就已经承诺融资的公司外，目前很少有债权人*款贷**给生病的公司。他表示:“即便是健康的(企业)也在争相获得融资。”

The seizing up of capital combined with the inability of companies to liquidate assets, Montgomery said, is causing a fundamental change to how Chapter 11 is utilized. In normal times, speed is of the essence, he explained. Now, as exemplified by Modell’s two requests for delay, “All of a sudden we will want to use Chapter 11 to keep a debtor alive for a better day, and to some extent mothball, even in advance of Chapter 11.”

蒙哥马利说，资本的冻结加上公司无力清算资产，正在给破产法第11章的使用方式带来根本性的变化。他解释说，在正常情况下，速度是最重要的。现在，正如Modell的两项延期申请所例证的那样，“突然之间，我们会想要利用第11章来让债务人活得更好，在某种程度上，甚至是在第11章之前做封存。”

Retail could have a tougher time than energy

零售业的日子可能比能源行业更难过

In the last two weeks, bankruptcy filings have been initiated by companies across a wide range of industries, including Frontier Communications Corp., LSC Communications Inc. (LKSD), True Religion Apparel Inc., Pace Industries, LLC, Longview Power LLC, Yuma Energy Inc.(YUMA), The Northwest. Other recent filers include retailer Pier 1 Imports (PIRRQ), which was approved to file for Chapter 11 protection in February, and the XFL football league, which filed April 13.

过去两周，很多行业的公司都提出了破产申请，包括Frontier Communications Corp.、LSC Communications Inc.、True Religion Apparel Inc.、Pace industries、Longview Power LLC、Yuma Energy Inc.和美国西北地区的企业。最近提交申请的公司还包括零售商Pier 1 Imports (PIRRQ)，该公司已于2月份获准申请破产保护，而XFL足球联赛则于4月13日提交了破产保护申请。

Certain industries looking to reorganize will struggle more than others, Hammond said. Energy is one area he sees as ripe for creditors to take on even with the newly introduced COVID-19 risk, while retail is less strongly positioned.

哈蒙德说，某些寻求重组的行业将比其他行业更加困难。他认为，在能源领域，即使有了新引入的COVID-19风险，债权人承担风险的时机也已经成熟，而零售业的地位则不那么稳固。

“It’s hard to see how a lot of businesses can survive on the retail side,” he said. “They were on the sharp end of the stick before COVID ... but oil is the world's most valuable commodity and it will be used again.”

他表示:“很难看出许多企业如何在零售领域生存下来。”“在科维德之前，他们是最危险的……但石油是世界上最有价值的商品，它将被再次使用。”

Roe is concerned that too many bankruptcies at once could cause a negative feedback loop for the economy, because companies saddled with a larger percentage of debt spur less investment and hiring.

Roe担心太多的公司同时破产可能会对经济造成负面的反馈循环，因为公司背负着更大比例的债务刺激了更少的投资和雇佣。

“If it’s everybody in the S&P 500 that's heavily indebted, it's a bigger problem...it becomes an economy-wide problem, instead of just a local problem.”

“如果标普500指数成份股中的所有人都负债累累，那问题就更大了……这将成为一个全局性的问题，而不仅仅是局部的问题。”

Bankruptcy lawyers are already ‘super busy’

破产律师已经“忙得不可开交”

Veteran industry players are already positioning to seize on valuable assets held by distressed companies. Hammond said the coming influx of claims also promises to open up bankruptcy business to newcomers who during the last couple of years have lamented that any business to be had was already spoken for.

经验丰富的业内人士已经开始着手收购陷入困境的公司持有的宝贵资产。哈蒙德表示，即将涌入的申请还承诺向新来者开放破产业务。过去几年来，新来者一直抱怨说，任何要申请的业务都已经有人提出了申请。

“I don't think it's an accident that folks like Fortress are suddenly buying or raising enormous amounts of money for distressed assets,” Hammond said. “This is a long view that people are taking. You couldn't have raised assets for this sort of thing two years ago. There wasn't much interest.”

"我不认为像Fortress这样的公司突然买进或筹集巨额资金来购买问题资产是偶然的，" Hammond说。“这是人们的长期观点。两年前你不可能为这种事情筹集到资金。没有多少人感兴趣。”

New Generation Research says Chapter 7 liquidations will be the first business bankruptcies to see a surge in filings, with Chapter 11 filing decisions still making little sense for most companies in the coming weeks and possibly months. Anecdotes from law firms that utilize New Generation’s data services are also informing the company’s predictions.

新一代研究公司(New Generation Research)表示，根据破产法第7章申请破产的企业数量将首次激增，而根据破产法第11章申请破产的决定在未来几周甚至几个月对多数企业来说仍毫无意义。利用新一代数据服务的律师事务所的奇闻轶事也为该公司的预测提供了信息。

“We're hearing this repeatedly, that restructuring lawyers are billing 300 hours a month. They're super busy,” Hammond said. “And this is the activity that precedes what happens in the court.”

“我们不断听到这样的话，重组律师一个月要工作300个小时。他们超级忙。”哈蒙德说。“这是在法庭上发生的事情之前的活动。”

This article has been corrected to reflect that Frontier Communications, and not Frontier Airlines, filed for bankruptcy protection in the past two weeks. Frontier Airlines filed for reorganization in 2008 and emerged from bankruptcy protection in 2009.

这篇文章已经更正，以反映边境通信，而不是边境航空公司，在过去两周申请破产保护。边疆航空于2008年申请重组，2009年脱离破产保护。