2023 年顶级数据中心和技术预测
Top data center and tech predictions for 2023
Ron Vokoun, OAC Services
译 者 说
原文作者是一位超级预言家，就现阶段看他的几条预测已经变成现实。随着OpenAI开发的生成式人工智能聊天机器人ChatGPT4.0发布，人工智能正在加速各行业的数字化转型。例如：帮助数据中心优化其能源消耗和运营效率，建筑行业的数字化，各行业精英让ChatGPT辅助加速该行业升级进化等。
在经历了我2022年预测所带来的起起伏伏之后，现在来发布我的2023年大胆预测。请继续阅读，听听我对核能、ChatGPT、建筑数据使用、5G和预制数据中心的看法。
After recovering from the roller coaster ride that was the grades for my 2022 predictions, it’s time to unleash my fearless prognostications for 2023. Read on to hear my rants on nuclear power, ChatGPT, the use of data in construction, 5G, and prefabricated data centers.
1、数据中心或云服务运营商将会选择核能电力供应商作为其能源供应商
1、A data center or cloud operator will sign up for nuclear power
这可能是我今年最为大胆的预测，但我认为这是有可能发生的。而且可能已经有一些计划正在进行中。正如你们中的一些人可能还记得的那样，2022年我预测核能将会有所突破。今年我再次坚信，一些有远见的云服务运营商将会承诺选择核能电力，这将推动核能电力的应用进一步普及。
This is probably my most aspirational prediction for this year, but I think there is a real chance that it happens. With any luck, it’s already in the works. As some of you may recall, I predicted that nuclear power would make headway in my 2022 predictions. I am doubling down in 2023 and say that some enlightened hyperscaler will make a commitment to nuclear power this year.
超大规模科技公司已经在采购清洁能源方面处于世界领先地位。但是，我们需要更多的行动来应对气候变化。为什么他们不考虑采用核能呢？与可再生能源不同，核能不会像风能或太阳能一样具有间歇性，而且小型模块化反应堆（SMR）的设计使其更容易放置在距离用电地点更近的地方。当然，并不是所有的地方都适合建设核能电站，但是最新技术提供了更多的选项和可能性。
The hyperscale tech companies are leading the world in the purchase of clean energy as it is. It’s obvious we need to do more to make progress against climate change. Why would they not consider nuclear energy? It is not intermittent like renewable energy and the small modular reactor (SMR) designs provide the opportunity to place them closer to where the power will be used. I am not saying you will be able to place them just anywhere, but there are more options with the latest technology.
2022年12月，Datacenter Dynamics的一篇文章报道了壳牌公司与NuScale合作评估在SMR站点上放置氢生产系统的想法。因此，采取这一行动的公司不会是第一家这样做的公司。NIMBY（不要在我家后院）无疑会成为问题，这在数据中心本身也是如此，但只要有意愿和大量资金，就总能找到解决办法。例如，假如你拥有超过2000英亩的土地，计划在马里兰州创建一个首屈一指的环保数据中心园区，你就不必担心邻居的问题。虽然人们对于核能是否环保存在争议，但它确实是一种无碳电力。如果这还不足以让你信服，那么奥利弗·斯通甚至拍了一部关于核能电力与气候变化相关好处的电影，证明核能电力具有显著的优势。
A Datacenter Dynamics article from December of 2022 announced the agreement between Shell and NuScale to assess the idea of putting hydrogen production systems at SMR sites. So, whoever makes the leap will not be the first one to do so. NIMBY (not in my back yard) will no doubt be an issue as it is with data centers themselves, but, where there is a will — and lots of money — there is a way. What if you owned over 2,000 acres of land in Maryland with a plan to create a first-of-its kind, environmentally friendly data center campus? With 2,000 acres, you don’t have any neighbors. Argue all you want about nuclear being environmentally friendly, but it’s carbon-free power. If that’s not enough for you, Oliver Stone even made a movie about the benefits of nuclear power as it relates to climate change!
我并没有说数据中心运营商将会开始购买SMR并自己运营，但为什么不像现在签署可再生能源的电力购买协议（PPA）一样签署协议呢？随着规模达到200-300兆瓦及以上的数据中心园区的建设，很容易想象在附近安装一个适当规模的SMR发电场，以避免电力网的一些低效率。这样做可以让数据中心运营商获得无碳电力，同时减少电网运输损失。
Am I saying data center operators are going to start buying SMRs and operating them? Heck no, but why not enter into power purchase agreements (PPAs) like how renewables are contracted for today? With data center campuses in the 200-300 MW range and larger in development, it’s easy to imagine an appropriately sized SMR farm being installed nearby, to avoid at least some of the inefficiencies of the power grid.
2、我预测生成式人工智能工具如ChatGPT将威胁到教育系统以及其他需要书写的领域
2、Generative AI tools like ChatGPT will threaten the educational system and anything else that requires writing
在2023年11月，由总部位于旧金山的OpenAI开发的生成式人工智能聊天机器人ChatGPT公开亮相，随即引起了轰动。ChatGPT的全称是“预训练生成式转换器”，它可以自动生成高质量的聊天内容，五天内吸引了超过一百万人签约测试。这一现象引起了广泛的讨论，人们开始关注ChatGPT这种工具可能会对教育和其他需要书写的领域造成的影响。
In November of 2023, ChatGPT made its public debut and quickly caused quite a stir. ChatGPT is a generative artificial intelligence chatbot created by San Francisco-based OpenAI. GPT stands for “generative pretrained transformer.” Sounds harmless right? More than a million people signed up to test it within five days.
ChatGPT以其惊人的速度和效率，令用户大呼过瘾，它可以在几秒钟内创作出令人惊叹的内容。据报道，它可以成功修复有问题的计算机代码，可以写大学水平的论文。我们甚至还让它完成了一些新闻写作的测试任务。然而，我担忧这种技术可能会对教育造成实质性的伤害，甚至可能已经在某种程度上造成了影响。
ChatGPT continues to amaze users by creating amazing content in seconds. It has reportedly repaired faulty computer code and written college level essays [and we also gave it some test journalistic assigments - Editor]. What could go wrong? Well, that educational part is where I fear real damage may be done, or perhaps already has.
当我询问ChatGPT是否会对教育系统产生负面影响时，它给出了以下回答：
When I asked ChatGPT if it would negatively impact the educational system, it gave me the following response:
“ChatGPT不太可能对教育系统产生负面影响。然而，像任何技术一样，它有可能被用于对教育有害的方式。例如，如果学生使用ChatGPT生成整篇论文或作业，可能会对他们的学习和发展产生不利影响。但是，如果ChatGPT被用作帮助学生完成特定的语言任务，比如语法和词汇，它可能会增强学习体验。此外，教师和教育工作者可以使用ChatGPT生成课程计划、测验和其他材料。需要注意的是，ChatGPT是一种工具，如何使用它取决于用户。此外，AI仍处于早期阶段，其能力将继续提高。要以有益于教育和学习的方式使用AI，包括ChatGPT。”
“It is unlikely that ChatGPT would have a negative impact on the educational system. However, like any technology, it does have the potential to be used in ways that could be detrimental to education. For example, if students were to use ChatGPT to generate entire papers or homework assignments, it could be detrimental to their learning and development. However, if ChatGPT is used as a tool to help students with specific language-related tasks, such as grammar and vocabulary, it could enhance the learning experience. Additionally, teachers and educators could use ChatGPT to generate lesson plans, quizzes, and other materials. It's important to note that ChatGPT is a tool and it's up to the users to use it in an appropriate way. It's also important to keep in mind that AI is still in its early stages and its capabilities will continue to improve. It's important to use AI, including ChatGPT, in a way that benefits education and learning.”
虽然这篇回答写得非常好且有良好的意图，但它显然假设所有人都是有道德底线的，而不是在可能的情况下走捷径。已经有很多记录了ChatGPT被用来写论文的案例，因此它已经产生了一定程度的影响。我相信有人比我聪明，可以创建一个工具来检测论文是否使用了生成式AI工具，这需要教师付出更多的工作量，而他们的薪资却没有得到相应的提高，这是一个现实问题。也许我的预测已经成为现实。有一件事是确定的，如果我在预测时使用了ChatGPT，它们将在一月初而不是二月初就发布了（也许更准确）。
So very well written and intended, but it obviously assumes that all people are ethical and logical instead of taking the easy way out whenever possible. There are already many documented cases of ChatGPT being used to write papers, so there has already been some level of impact. I am sure someone much smarter than I can create a tool to detect if a generative AI tool was used on a paper, but that is just one more step that underpaid teachers will have to perform. Perhaps my prediction is already a reality. One thing is certain, if I had used ChatGPT on my predictions, they would have been out in early January instead of early February (and maybe more accurate).
3、大型科技公司的裁员可能会促使它们更多地采用临时工或员工补充的方式来满足人员需求
3、Big tech layoffs will increase the need for contingent workers/staff augmentation
在过去几个月里，我们听说了大型科技公司一轮又一轮的裁员。这使得成千上万的人处境艰难，所以我不会在这个预测中采取我通常的讽刺语气。但好的一面是，市场上有很多人才，但在许多情况下，他们很快就被抢走了。
Over the last few months, we’ve heard of one round of layoffs after another from the big tech companies. It’s put many thousands of people in tough situations, so I won’t take my typical sarcastic tone on this prediction. On a positive note, there is a lot of talent on the market, but they are getting snatched up quickly in many cases.
在网上有许多关于临时工的定义，我最喜欢Bamboo HR提供的定义——他们是承包商、自由职业者、顾问或临时工。
Of the many definitions online for a contingent worker, I like the one from BambooHR the best - essential they are contractors, freelances, consultants or temporary staff
这种方式对雇主和员工都有很多好处。其中之一是，雇主不必自己支付临时工的福利，而且他们的服务可以根据特定需求随时开启和关闭。对于团队成员来说，这种方式赋予了他们极大的灵活性。他们可以选择最具吸引力的机会，如果愿意成为旅行者，还可以去看看世界。
The benefits of this are many for both the hiring company and the employee. Among them is that the hiring company doesn’t have to pay the contingent workers benefits themselves and their services can be turned on and off to suit your specific needs. For the team member, it gives them great flexibility. They can choose which opportunities are most compelling to them and see the country if they choose to be a traveler.
但需要注意的是，如何关注雇主对待临时工[有些科技公司，例如[谷歌，在这方面有不好的记录在案]。人力资源代理机构往往是盈利性，很少或不会对他们的工人进行指导和培训。他们的福利也可能是次标准的，如果有的话。在正规情况下，有顶尖的福利，团队成员得到指导，并接受培训以跟上当前的技术。后者往往会更加昂贵，但团队成员往往更加快乐和高效。谁想被当作商品一样对待呢？临时工应做出明智的决定并获得应有的福利待遇。
One thing to watch out for is how the contingent worker is cared for by their employer [and some tech firms, such as Google, have a bad record here - Editor]. Staffing agencies tend to be very transactional and do little to nothing to mentor and train their workers. Their benefits may also be substandard if they exist at all. In other cases, there are top notch benefits, the team member is mentored, and they are trained to keep up with current technology. The latter tends to be a bit more expensive, but the team members tend to be happier and more productive. Who wants to be treated like a commodity? Make an informed decision and reap the benefits.
4、在建筑领域，数据的使用范围正在扩大，从中我们也能够获得新的洞见和认识
4、Use of data in construction expands and yields new insights
建筑业长期以来一直被认为是一群使用算盘的保守派。虽然这远非事实，但我们是唯一一个近60年未提高劳动生产率的非农行业。建筑业一直很擅长收集数据，但我们并没有总是充分利用它，除了使用标准指标和成本报告之外。这是因为有如此多的数据且数据传输速度非常快，以至于我们没有办法对它进行处理。
The construction industry has long been perceived as a bunch of abacus-using Luddites. Although this is far from the truth, we are the only non-farm industry that has not improved its labor productivity in almost 60 years. The industry has been very good at gathering data, but we haven’t always done much with it other than the standard metrics and cost reports because there is so much data and it is coming at us so fast that there was no way to process it.
如果一个批发式的Colo提供商的建设经理能够说出承包商需要以多快的速度建设来最大化收入，或者在第一天分析时间表并说出它是否能够实现呢？
What if a wholesale colo provider's construction manager could say how fast a contractor needs to build to maximize revenue? Or analyze the schedule on day 1 to say it ican be met？
如果一个批发的基础设施提供商的建筑经理能够说出承包商需要以何种速度建造才能最大化收益，或者在第一天分析时间表以确保能够如期完成呢？虽然建筑行业并不像外界所认为的那样落后，但在近60年来，我们是唯一一个未提高劳动生产率的非农行业。这个行业一直在搜集数据，但我们并没有总是能够充分利用这些数据，除了标准指标和成本报告之外。因为有大量数据产生得非常快，我们无法及时处理。今天数字化技术允许我们比以往更快更有效地捕获和处理更多数据，同时将设计师和建筑师的专业知识存储在数字代码中，用于改善设计和建造过程。我们的建筑现场需要像亚马逊晚间足球比赛或F1比赛一样，从世界各地收集实时数据，以建造和改进结果。
There have always been stellar examples of great projects that did incredible work such as the Empire State building, Pentagon, etc., but the nature of the industry makes every project a silo because they do not move from where they are built, and the teams are broken up after the project. Today digitization allows us to capture and process more data faster and more effectively than we ever have before while storing the expertise of the designers and builders in digital code to be used to improve the process of designing and building. Our construction sites need to feel like Thursday Night Football games on Amazon Prime or F1 races with real time data coming in from all over the world to build and improve outcomes.
也许这又是我的一个理想化预测，但我认为2023年是这种情况发生变革的一年。已经有一些开明的人正在以前所未见的方式切分和分析数据，包括OAC的首席创新官。对于批发式托管提供商来说，他们的建筑经理能告诉他们承包商需要多快才能建造数据中心以最大化收益，这将会有多么有价值呢？他们可以在第一天分析进度并告诉他们是否有可能按计划完成任务。使用数据以更精细的方式拆分工作，并改善生产力，这是我们几十年来从未见过的？
Perhaps this is another one of my aspirational predictions, but I think 2023 is the year when this changes. There are some enlightened souls that are already slicing and dicing data differently than I have ever seen, including the Chief Innovation Officer of OAC. How valuable would it be to a wholesale colocation provider for their construction manager to be able to tell them how fast their contractor needs to build their data center to maximize their revenue? How about analyzing their schedule on day 1 and telling them the likelihood that they will meet that schedule? What about using the data to break down work in a much more granular way and improve productivity in a way we haven’t seen in decades?
现在这一切都是可能的，我预测2023年将是实现并产生新见解的一年。
It's all possible now, and I predict that 2023 will be the year that it comes to fruition and yields new insights.
5、5G再次达不到预期
5 、5G fails to live up to the hype…again
今年5G的预测我做出了180度的反转，与去年完全相反。去年我愚蠢地预测5G会达到预期效果，但这是我在2022年中得分为F的预测之一。正如TechDirt所说，5G主要只是电信和硬件供应商急于销售更多设备并为高昂的美国移动数据价格辩护的炒作。我对这个问题上犯了傻，早在2019年我就开始预测5G的发展。我并不比Charlie Brown聪明，他总是认为这次他能够踢到足球，结果却被Lucy再次拿走。我认为，5G在2023年及以后都不会实现它的炒作效应。尽管如此，如果询问ChatGPT，仍然对其潜力持乐观态度。
I am doing a 180° reversal from last year when I idiotically predicted that 5G would start to live up to the hype. This was one of my predictions that received a grade of an F in 2022. As TechDirt put it, 5G was largely just hype by telecoms and hardware vendors eager to sell more gear and to justify high US mobile data prices. I am a glutton for punishment on this one as I started making predictions about 5G back in 2019. I am no smarter than Charlie Brown, who always thought this would be the time he would get to kick the football, only to have Lucy pull it away yet again. 5G will not live up to the hype in 2023 and I don’t think it ever will. That said, when asked, ChatGPT still seems optimistic about its potential.
6、微软对ChatGPT创建者OpenAI的投资将使必应变得更有价值
6、Microsoft’s investment in ChatGPT creator OpenAI will make Bing relevant
今年对ChatGPT的预测与去年对元宇宙预测差不多。我是热衷于互联网的人。在1月中旬，微软宣布将向Azure添加ChatGPT。不久之后，微软确认正在对OpenAI进行“多年、数十亿美元”的投资。尽管他们只宣布将ChatGPT添加到Azure，但人们会认为，它只是时间问题，微软会将其添加到很少人知道的Bing搜索引擎上。我的预测是，他们将在Bing中加入ChatGPT，并成为谷歌搜索的有力竞争者。可笑的是谷歌开发了Transformers技术，而ChatGPT是基于这一技术构建的。
Apparently ChatGPT is to this year’s predictions as the metaverse was to my predictions last year. I am a sucker for a good buzzword. In mid-January, Microsoft announced that it would add ChatGPT to Azure. Not long after, Microsoft confirmed that it was making a "multiyear, multibillion-dollar investment" in OpenAI. Although they have only announced adding ChatGPT to Azure, one would think it’s only a matter of time before they add it to their little-used Bing search engine. My prediction is that they will add ChatGPT to Bing and it will become a relevant competitor to Google’s search. How ironic that Google developed Transformer technology, the very techniqie that ChatGPT is built upon.
7、监管对数据中心行业产生影响
7 、Regulation strikes the data center industry
许多数据中心行业人士长期以来一直说过：自我监管，否则别人会替你做。监管可以适用于许多领域，从数据中心的建设地点到使用的电源来源。在北弗吉尼亚州，有很多公开报道的事情，其中一位参议员试图阻止PW Digital Gateway项目，然后该州制定了一个新的“超级数据中心激励计划”，以吸引亚马逊公司的350亿美元投资。
Many in the data center industry have said it for a long time, regulate yourself or someone else will do it for you. Regulation can apply to many areas ranging from where you build your data center to the source of the power used in it. There have been the much publicized goings on in northern Virginia where one senator tried to stymie the PW Digital Gateway project, then the state developed a new ‘Mega Data Center Incentive Program’ to attract a $35B investment from AWS.
从监管的角度来看，引起我注意的新闻来自俄勒冈州，一项提议的法案将为数据中心和加密挖矿机建立清洁能源标准。许多大型数据中心和云计算运营商已经致力于使用可再生能源，但如果这项法案通过，它将是必需的。这将给一些加密挖矿者留下深刻的印象，他们将使用他们能找到的最便宜的电力，而不管它是如何产生的。我预测，这种基于环保的监管趋势在2023年会加速发展。
The news that caught my attention from a regulatory standpoint came out of Oregon where a proposed bill would establish clean energy standards for data centers and crypto miners. Many of the large data center and cloud operators are already committed to renewable energy, but if this bill passes, it will require it. That will leave a mark for some of the crypto miners that will use the cheapest power they can find, regardless of how it is produced. I predict that this type of environmentally based regulation picks up momentum in 2023.
8、边缘计算将引领预制化数据中心的黄金时代
8、The edge will usher in the golden age of prefabricated data centers
我一直在推崇预制化技术，早在20世纪90年代中期，我当时领导的团队为Qwest Communications全美网络安装了650个预制化电信小屋。因此，对于预制化数据中心的预测不应该让任何人感到惊讶。随着边缘计算市场的成熟，交付所需的设施数量的唯一途径是通过预制化技术。
I have been beating the prefab drum going all the way back to the mid 1990’s when I led teams that installed over 650 prefabricated telecom huts across the US for the Qwest Communications nationwide network, so making a prediction on prefab data centers shouldn’t surprise anyone. With the maturation of the edge market, the only path to delivering the number of facilities that will be necessary is through prefabrication.
预制化技术的优势不仅在于快速交付，而且能够克服建筑劳动力短缺问题。预制化数据中心也在努力推动可持续发展倡议，并取得了良好的进展。大约一年前，Compass Datacenters宣布推出了Compass Quantum和其白空间即服务（WaaS），具备100 kW模块。最近，初创企业ECL宣布推出了基于氢能源的离网3D打印数据中心。说边缘计算将引领预制化数据中心的黄金时代可能有些夸张，因此我将预测2023年边缘计算将带来预制化数据中心的更大创新和普及。
Speed to market and overcoming the labor shortage in construction is just the start of what prefabrication has to offer. Prefabricated data centers are also pushing hard to incorporate sustainability initiatives and making good progress. A little under a year ago Compass Datacenters announced the launch of Compass Quantum and their white-space-as-a-service with 100 kW modules. More recently, startup ECL came flying off the top rope with their newly announced hydrogen-powered off-grid 3D-printed data centers. Saying that the edge will usher in the golden age of prefabricated data centers is pretty fluffy as a prediction, so I will say that 2023 will be the year that the edge will lead to greater innovation in, and the proliferation of, prefabricated data centers.
深 知 社
翻译：
刘艳宾
苹果数据中心 运维工程师
DKV（DeepKnowledge Volunteer）计划成员
校对：
王谋锐
城地香江(上海)云计算有限公司 电气架构师
DKV（DeepKnowledge Volunteer）计划精英成员
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