【本文由价值一哥译自CNBC1994年伯克希尔股东大会文字实录，译文后附有英语原文，如有翻译不准确的地方请在评论区告知价值一哥。谢谢！】
巴菲特：有些企业比其他企业更容易理解。查理和我不喜欢棘手的问题。我的意思是，如果有些东西很难，你知道，我们宁愿用3而不是用Π（圆周率）。（笑声）（价值一哥注：巴菲特曾提到，有议员曾提案要求立法将圆周率改为3，以方便计算）
查理，你有什么要说的吗——？
芒格：嗯，这一点很明显。然而，许多人认为，如果他们雇佣了有什么头衔的人，他们可以完成一些非常困难的事情。这是人类最危险的想法之一。
各种事情会因增加复杂性而产生问题。有一天我去处理一个问题，那是一栋新楼。我说，“这件事有三样东西让我学会害怕——建筑师、承包商和一座山。”（笑声）
而且-如果你能这样生活，我认为，你至少比那些认为只要雇佣一个有头衔的人，就可以解决任何问题的人，犯的错误要少。
巴菲特：我们不发表评论-对不起，请继续。
芒格：如果你保持简单，你就不必雇人帮你思考。
巴菲特：你不必这么做——我们以前曾说过——出色的业绩不是非得要做特别的事情。
有些人认为，如果你能跨过7英尺高的栅栏，就能比跨过1英尺高的栅栏得到更值钱的绥带。但在投资界里完全不是这样的。
所以，（在投资领域）你可以只做非常普通的事情。我是说，这有什么复杂的？你知道，我们的税前收入因它（指可口可乐）比几年前增加了30亿美元。
我对可口可乐的产品、分销系统、财务情况的理解，没有超出任何正常人的理解。只是他们对此无动于衷。
同样地，如果你从事有点复杂的业务，你会收到一份长达一千页的报告，你可以让博士来分析它，但这没有任何意义。
你知道，你得到的只是一份报告，但你还是不能知道这项业务10年或15年后，会是什么样子。
重要的是避免犯错误。（笑声）
芒格：有些事情本质上很危险的。我心目中的另一个英雄，马克·吐温说起过他那个时代的促销商，他说：“*子骗**把自己拥有的土地上的一个洞称为矿井。”（笑声）
这就是我看待预测的态度。我记得，在一起企业并购交易中，曾有人想让沃伦和我花200万美元买一份预测报告，报告有这么厚（手势）。
巴菲特：其实没有任何价值。
芒格：即使免费得到他，我们也不会翻开看。
巴菲特：我们宁可花200万美元不看这份报告。（笑声）
这太荒谬了。我不明白为什么一家企业的买家都会看卖家或-
芒格：或者他的代理人。
巴菲特：或者他的代理人（拼凑出来的预测呢？）
我的意思是，你几乎可以说，认为这有任何用处都是天真的。我们对这种东西完全不感兴趣。
如果我们自己对未来一无所知，却坐在那里听其他人告诉我们未来会是什么，就像我说的那样，这是很天真。
芒格：是的，而且是五年后的。
巴菲特：对。我们在年报里有句话：“不要问理发师你是否需要理发。”（笑声）这非常适用于卖家对业务的预测。
You don’t have to do exceptional things to get exceptional results
WARREN BUFFETT: Some businesses are a lot easier to understand than others. And Charlie and I don’t like difficult problems. I mean, we — if something is hard to figure, you know, we’d rather multiply by three than by pi. I mean it’s just easier for us. (Laughter)
Charlie, you have any —?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, that is such an obvious point. And yet so many people think if they just hire somebody with the appropriate labels they can do something very difficult. That is one of the most dangerous ideas a human being can have.
All kinds of things just intrinsically create problems. The other day I was dealing with a problem and I said, this thing — it’s a new building — and I said this thing has three things I’ve learned to fear: an architect, a contractor, and a hill. (Laughter)
And — if you go at life like that, I think you, at least, make fewer mistakes than people who think they can do anything by just hiring somebody with a label.
WARREN BUFFETT: We don’t comment — excuse me, go ahead.
CHARLIE MUNGER: You don’t have to hire out your thinking if you keep it simple.
WARREN BUFFETT: You don’t have to do — we’ve said this before — but you don’t have to do exceptional things to get exceptional results.
And some people think that if you jump over a seven-foot bar that the ribbon they pin on you is going to be worth more money than if you step over a one-foot bar. And it just isn’t true in the investment world, at all.
So, you can do very ordinary things. I mean, what is complicated about this? But, you know, we’re $3 billion pretax better off than we were a few years ago because of it.
There’s nothing that I know about that product, or its distribution system, its finances, or anything, that, really, hundreds of thousands — or millions — of people aren’t capable of, that they don’t already know. They just don’t do anything about it.
And similarly, if you get into some complicated business, you can get a report that’s a thousand pages thick and you got Ph.D.s working on it, but it doesn’t mean anything.
You know, what you’ve got is a report but you don’t — it — you won’t understand that business, what it’s going to look like in 10 or 15 years.
The big thing to do is avoid being wrong. (Laughter)
CHARLIE MUNGER: There are some things that are so intrinsically dangerous. Another of my heroes is Mark Twain, who looked at the promoters of his day and he said, “A mine is a hole in the ground owned by a liar.” (Laughter)
And that’s the way I’ve come to look at projections. I mean, basically, I can remember, Warren and I were offered $2 million worth of projections once in the course of buying a business and the book was this thick.
WARREN BUFFETT: For nothing.
CHARLIE MUNGER: And, if we were given it for nothing, and we wouldn’t open it.
WARREN BUFFETT: We almost paid 2 million not to look at it. (Laughter)
It’s ridiculous. I do not understand why any buyer of a business looks at a bunch of projections put together by a seller or —
CHARLIE MUNGER: Or his agent.
WARREN BUFFETT: — or his agent.
I mean, it — you can almost say that it’s naive to think that that has any utility whatsoever. We just are not interested.
If we don’t have some idea ourselves of what we think the future is, to sit there and listen to some other guy who’s trying to sell us the business or get a commission on it tell us what the future’s going to be — it — like I say, it’s very naïve.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, and five years out.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. We had a line in the report one time, “Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut.” And — (laughter) — it’s quite applicable to projections of — by sellers — of businesses.
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