疫情之下的全球供应链｜See The World In English

原创 2022-02-08 23:43·司镜233

See The World In English见识决定格局，格局决定高度。很多时候不是你不知道，而是你不知道“你不知道”。 但是，想要接触更大的世界，英语必不可少，我们却往往因为语言限制而未曾看到更广阔的天空。每天10分钟读一篇英文论文报告或深度文章，学习英语的同时，触摸世界的深度和广度。（1）原文&译文：对照学习，也可以直接看中文（2）重点词汇：有考试需求的童鞋可以重点学习（3）内容提炼：时间紧急的可以直接看摘要总结我是司镜233，带你看见你的”不知道“。

本文内容提炼：疫情改变全球供应链物流模式的同时，很可能引发长鞭效应/牛鞭效应，导致供大于求，供应链库存暴增。

（1）现在全球海运货物量高达19亿吨，但疫情*锁封**边境、人力短缺，运输能力大幅度下降。 （2）运费飙升，平均价格上涨80%。 （3）消费者囤货、报复性采购等导致零售商的订单量激增，一旦需求缓和或是供应链任意一个环节停滞，很容易出现供过于求的窘况，也就是长鞭效应。

应对策略具体可以看下文。

Prepare for the Bullwhip’s Sting

Rising inflation and global supply chain problems raise concerns that a recession is looming.

为牛鞭效应做准备

不断上升的通胀和全球供应链问题引发了人们对衰退即将来临的担忧。

Nearly two years into the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, signs are pointing to the growing risk of a global economic recession. High consumer demand, product shortages, and transportation disruptions in the second half of 2021 triggered inflation and changes to manufacturers’ order patterns, setting up the bullwhip effect — a supply chain phenomenon that can have far-reaching consequences. The ups and downs of money flows, labor patterns, inventory management, and product demand are setting the stage for what happens next — and business leaders, particularly in supply chain roles, should prepare now for the greater challenges that may lie ahead.

在 COVID-19 大流行造成的破坏近两年后，有迹象表明全球经济衰退的风险越来越大。2021 年下半年的高消费需求、产品短缺和运输中断引发了通货膨胀和制造商订单模式的变化，形成了牛鞭效应——一种可能产生深远影响的供应链现象。资金流动、劳动力模式、库存管理和产品需求的起伏正在为接下来发生的事情奠定基础——企业领导者，尤其是供应链角色的领导者，现在应该为未来可能面临的更大挑战做好准备。

two years 两年economic recession 经济衰退consumer demand 消费者需求setting up 调定，安装 ; 刷毛ups and downs 兴衰 ; 浮沉 ; 起落 ; 悲欢supply chain 供应链lie ahead 在前面

Roots of an Upcoming Crisis

危机的根源

In early 2020, COVID-19 slapped down large swaths of the global economy. Individuals’ fears and government restrictions significantly curtailed many commercial activities. Sales plummeted at restaurants, theaters, gyms, discretionary retail stores, and businesses in the travel and tourism industry; many production facilities were forced to slow operations or close. U.S. GDP plummeted 32.9% in the second quarter of 2020, and U.S. unemployment rose to a record 14.8%.

2020 年初，COVID-19 重创了全球经济的大部分地区。个人的恐惧和政府的限制极大地限制了许多商业活动。餐馆、剧院、健身房、非必需品零售店以及旅游业企业的销售额直线下降；许多生产设施被迫放缓运营或关闭。2020 年第二季度美国 GDP 暴跌32.9%，美国失业率升至创纪录的 14.8%。

slapped 打，拍，掴 ; 啪的一声放下，随意扔放 ; 啪地击打 ; slap的过去分词和过去式global economy 全球经济curtailed 限制 ; 缩短 ; 减缩 ; curtail的过去分词和过去式plummeted 暴跌 ; 速降 ; plummet的过去分词和过去式theaters 剧场 ; 戏剧 ; 战场 ; 戏剧作品 ; theater的复数gyms 健身房 ; 体育馆 ; 体育活动 ; gym的复数discretionary 自由决定的 ; 酌情行事的 ; 便宜行事的GDP 国内生产总值(全写为gross domestic product)

Governments around the world responded by propping up their economies with lavish stimulus payments, unemployment benefits, paycheck protection schemes, and eviction moratoriums, while central banks worked to induce liquidity by keeping interest rates very low, among other means. While government actions certainly helped many struggling families stay afloat, many other households enjoyed a double bonus of lowered household spending plus higher income thanks to the government’s largesse. As a result, the personal savings rate quadrupled in the United States, and consumers worldwide socked away some $5.4 trillion in excess savings. That surplus of money built the foundation for the subsequent rebound, product shortages, supply chain congestion, and inflationary surge. It also likely planted the seeds for the next economic downturn.

世界各国政府的应对措施是通过慷慨的刺激支付、失业救济金、工资保障计划和暂停驱逐来支持其经济，而中央银行则通过将利率保持在非常低的水平等方式来促进流动性。虽然政府的行动确实帮助许多陷入困境的家庭维持生计，但由于政府的慷慨解囊，许多其他家庭享受了家庭支出减少和收入增加的双重好处。结果，美国的个人储蓄率翻了两番，全世界的消费者都存入了大约5.4 万亿美元的超额储蓄. 货币过剩为随后的反弹、产品短缺、供应链拥堵和通胀飙升奠定了基础。它也可能为下一次经济衰退埋下种子。

around the world 全世界unemployment benefits 失业补贴 ; 失业救济金 ; unemployment benefit的复数interest rates 利率 ; interest rate得复数stay afloat 顺利运营higher income 较高收入As a result 因此United States 美国 ; 美利坚合众国 ; 依宪法而联合起来的州的总称supply chain 供应链economic downturn 经济低迷；经济不景气；经济滑坡

By mid-2020, home sales, home construction, and demand for building materials rebounded quickly as many people sought new, larger suburban homes. In spring 2021, consumer spending accelerated sharply as the rollout of vaccines and decline of COVID-19 case numbers encouraged a broader reopening of the economy.

到 2020 年年中，随着许多人寻求新的、更大的郊区住宅，房屋销售、房屋建设和对建筑材料的需求迅速反弹。2021 春季，随着疫苗的推出和 COVID-19 病例数的下降鼓励更广泛的经济重新开放，消费者支出急剧加速。

home sales 国内销售，内销demand for 要求rebounded 弹回 ; 反弹 ; 报应 ; 反作用于 ; 回升 ; rebound的过去分词和过去式consumer spending 消费性开支rollout 首次展示vaccines 疫苗 ; 菌苗 ; vaccine的复数reopening 重新开业 ; 重新开放 ; 重新处理 ; 再次开始 ; 恢复 ; reopen的现在分词

The growing boom in demand induced a scarcity of semiconductor chips, home appliances, cars, and building materials that triggered inflation for many goods and commodities. The associated increase in imports also created significant congestion at ports, docks, warehouses, and rail yards. Consequent shortages of transportation equipment caused skyrocketing transport and storage prices, along with delayed deliveries. As businesses reopened, many faced shortages of front-line workers, which triggered ongoing wage inflation.

需求的增长导致半导体芯片、家用电器、汽车和建筑材料的短缺，从而引发了许多商品和商品的通货膨胀。相关的进口增加也造成了港口、码头、仓库和铁路站场的严重拥堵。随之而来的运输设备短缺导致运输和仓储价格飞涨，以及交货延迟。随着企业重新开业，许多企业面临一线工人短缺，这引发了持续的工资上涨。

in demand 很受欢迎;需求量大increase in 在…方面增长skyrocketing 飞涨 ; 猛涨 ; skyrocket的现在分词along with 随着 ; 除某物以外 ; 随同…一起，跟…一起wage inflation 工资膨胀

In June 2021, Federal Reserve Board chairman Jerome Powell told Bloomberg, “It turns out it’s a heck of a lot easier to create demand than it is to, you know, to bring supply back up to snuff.” While a central banker can quickly increase the money supply by trillions of dollars with the stroke of a pen, industrial and logistics organizations face the implacable laws of physics governing the extraction, processing, assembly, movement, and delivery of billions of tons of materials, parts, and finished products across thousands of miles.

2021 年 6 月，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 告诉彭博社，“事实证明，创造需求要比让供应恢复到正常水平要容易得多。” 虽然中央银行家可以用笔迅速增加数万亿美元的货币供应量，但工业和物流组织面临着管理数十亿吨材料的提取、加工、组装、移动和交付的不可磨灭的物理定律，零件和成品跨越数千英里。

Federal Reserve Board 联邦储备委员会a lot 很多 ; 许多 ; 常you know 你知道 ; 你知道的 ; 你知道吗back up 支持 ; 后退 ; 证实 ; 备份 ; 将…付诸实施 ; 证实…的说法 ; 倒车 ; 堵塞 ; 倒行money supply 货币供应量tons of 大量 ; 一大堆 ; 许多，无数的finished products 成品；制成品thousands of 几千 ; 成千上万

From Surge to Purge: The Bullwhip Effect

从激增到清除：牛鞭效应

The implications of the unprecedented demand surge and its aftermath are worse than Powell could imagine. The bullwhip effect imparts a painful sting during such times. When consumers start to unexpectedly strip store shelves bare, retailers have to order more goods from product distributors. The size of those new orders reflects not just the need to replenish retail inventories, but also retailers’ updated forecasts of growing future demand. Similarly, distributors will order more to cover both the replenishment of their own inventories plus the increased future demand from multiple retailers. In turn, product manufacturers, parts makers, and raw material producers will each follow the same process, all of which further amplifies the size of the orders (and inventories held) as they flow up the chain.

前所未有的需求激增及其后果的影响比鲍威尔想象的还要糟糕。在这种情况下，牛鞭效应会带来痛苦的刺痛。当消费者开始出乎意料地把商店货架上的东西都剥光时，零售商不得不从产品分销商那里订购更多的商品。这些新订单的规模不仅反映了补充零售库存的需要，还反映了零售商对未来不断增长的需求的最新预测。同样，分销商将订购更多产品，以补充他们自己的库存以及多家零售商未来增加的需求。反过来，产品制造商、零件制造商和原材料生产商将各自遵循相同的流程，所有这些都进一步放大了订单（和持有的库存）的规模，因为它们向链条上游流动。

bullwhip 长而重的鞭子start to 开始have to 不得不 ; 必须 ; 劝告或建议时用 ; 表示一定真实或肯定发生but also 而且demand from 向…要求或索取In turn 反过来 ; 继而 ; 转而 ; 逐一 ; 轮流地raw material 原材料 ; 原料all of 一共 ; 足足 ; 至少

The bullwhip effect has been documented by many researchers and includes several other factors. The most important one in today’s context is that shortages and supply chain bottlenecks create uncertainty about product availability and time of delivery. Companies are not sure whether or when they will get the supplies they need, leading them to order more than they need “just in case” at every tier of the supply chain. Both the updated forecast and the uncertainty lead to more inventory held by retailers, distributors, manufacturers, suppliers, sub-suppliers, and so on.

许多研究人员已经记录了牛鞭效应，其中包括其他几个因素。在当今背景下，最重要的是短缺和供应链瓶颈造成了产品可用性和交付时间的不确定性。公司不确定他们是否或何时会获得所需的供应，导致他们在供应链的每一层“以防万一”订购的数量超过了他们的需求。更新后的预测和不确定性都会导致零售商、分销商、制造商、供应商、次级供应商等持有更多库存。

most important 重要的 ; 有重大影响的 ; 有巨大价值的 ; 影响很大的 ; 权威的 ; important的最高级supply chain 供应链more than 比…更;比…更重要 ; 超出需要;超乎寻常just in case 以备 ; 以防;免得 ; 以防万一lead to 导致 ; 通向and so on 等等 ; 及诸如此类

If — or rather, when — demand drops, the bullwhip amplifies the downside for all those upstream suppliers that had overinvested in the surge. In response to lower demand — and to work off their bloated inventories — retailers slash new orders. Distributors likewise stop ordering more product from manufacturers and even cancel any outstanding orders until both the retailers and the distributors have sold their excess inventory. Each player up the chain suffers a worse and longer fall-off in demand, leading to reduced manufacturing and layoffs, which in turn exacerbate the contraction in demand, leading to and then exacerbating an economic downturn. Thus, the crack of the whip comes to the supply chain when boom flips to bust and intensifies the recession.

如果——或者更确切地说，当——需求下降时，牛鞭会放大所有那些在激增中过度投资的上游供应商的不利因素。为了应对较低的需求——并解决他们臃肿的库存——零售商削减了新订单。分销商同样停止向制造商订购更多产品，甚至取消任何未完成的订单，直到零售商和分销商都出售了多余的库存。产业链上游的每个参与者都遭受了更严重、更长时间的需求下降，导致制造减少和裁员，这反过来又加剧了需求的收缩，从而导致并加剧了经济衰退。因此，当繁荣转为萧条并加剧衰退时，鞭子的裂缝就会出现在供应链上。

or rather 说得更正确点In response to 作为回应 ; 响应；回答；对…有反应work off 宣泄，释放，排解 ; 用工作偿还in demand 很受欢迎;需求量大and then 然后economic downturn 经济低迷；经济不景气；经济滑坡crack of the whip 尝试机会，参与机会supply chain 供应链

The bullwhip effect has been found in data for many product categories, such as pasta, soup, and soft drinks.2 Moreover, the 2008 financial crisis showed that the bullwhip can operate on a much broader, global scale. In that downturn, U.S. retail sales declined by 12%, yet U.S. manufacturers pulled down inventories by 15%, and manufacturers’ sales declined almost 30% while imports plunged over 30%.3 A survey of 125 Dutch companies found that those in tiers 1 and 2 relative to end consumers saw a 25% drop in revenues, while those in tiers 3 and 4 suffered a 39% to 43% drop.

在许多产品类别的数据中都发现了牛鞭效应，例如面食、汤和软饮料。2此外，2008 年的金融危机表明，牛鞭可以在更广泛的全球范围内运作。在那次低迷时期，美国零售额下降了 12%，但美国制造商将库存减少了 15%，制造商的销售额下降了近 30%，而进口下降了 30% 以上。3对 125 家荷兰公司的调查发现，与最终消费者相比，处于 1 级和 2 级的公司收入下降了 25%，而处于 3 级和 4 级的公司则下降了 39% 至 43%。

has been 已经such as 例如 ; 像 ; 象…这样 ; 诸如…之类soft drinks 软饮料 ; soft drink的复数financial crisis 金融危机operate on 给……做手术 ; 产生作用global scale 全球尺度relative to 关于…的，和…比较起来drop in 顺道拜访 ; 突然拜访

The point is that when supply chains are as tight as they were at the end of 2021, even a small change in consumer demand tends to cause a moderate change in manufacturing activity and a much larger change in the activity of raw material producers. The reason is that every member of the chain responds not just to the change in demand but also to the implied need to adjust all the inventories up and down the chain. The result is that a boom in demand pushes companies to invest in supplies, inventories, labor, and capacity, while a subsequent contraction leaves such companies with potentially fatal high inventories, high costs, high debts, and low revenues.

关键是，当供应链像 2021 年底一样紧张时，即使是消费者需求的微小变化也往往会导致制造业活动发生适度变化，而原材料生产商的活动也会发生更大的变化。原因是供应链中的每个成员不仅对需求变化做出反应，而且对调整供应链上下游所有库存的隐含需求做出反应。结果是，需求旺盛推动公司投资于供应、库存、劳动力和产能，而随后的收缩使这些公司可能面临致命的高库存、高成本、高债务和低收入。

at the end of 在…的结尾 ; 在…末端small change 小面值硬币 ; 零钱 ; 没有什么价值的东西consumer demand 消费者需求raw material 原材料 ; 原料change in demand 需求变化up and down 上上下下 ; 来来回回invest in 投资到

That contraction is on the horizon. As we get into 2022, central banks will likely fight inflation by raising interest rates, reducing the money supply, and cooling the economy. New waves of COVID-19 also remain a threat to the economy; as this article was being prepared, the rapidly spreading omicron variant was driving renewed restrictions and consumer caution. Any reduction in consumer demand will likely kick off a bullwhip-amplified economic downturn that will reverberate upstream in the world’s supply chains. For example, following the 2008 financial crisis, 60 suppliers’ plants closed, resulting in the loss of 100,000 jobs, and supplier bankruptcies in the automotive industry more than tripled between 2007 and 2009.5 Worse, in the current context of the pandemic, governments may have exhausted their abilities to offer (and appetites for) massive financial support to mitigate a downturn.

这种收缩即将到来。随着我们进入 2022 年，各国央行可能会通过提高利率、减少货币供应量和冷却经济来对抗通胀。新一波的 COVID-19 也仍然对经济构成威胁；在准备本文时，迅速传播的 omicron 变体正在推动新的限制和消费者谨慎。消费者需求的任何减少都可能引发牛鞭放大的经济衰退，这将在全球供应链的上游产生反响。例如，在 2008 年金融危机之后，60 家供应商的工厂关闭，导致 100,000 个工作岗位流失，汽车行业的供应商破产数量在 2007 年至 2009 年间增加了两倍多。5更糟糕的是，在当前大流行的背景下，政府可能已经用尽了提供（和渴望）大规模财政支持以缓解经济衰退的能力。

on the horizon 已露端倪的;即将发生的get into 进入 ; 成功涉足 ; 考入 ; 使行为异常 ; 使着魔interest rates 利率 ; interest rate的复数money supply 货币供应量New waves 新浪潮 ; 新潮流音乐(流行于20世纪70年代的一种摇滚乐) ; new wave的复数consumer demand 消费者需求kick off 在足球比赛中）开球 ; 开始 ; 踢掉 ; 强使离开economic downturn 经济低迷；经济不景气；经济滑坡

financial crisis 金融危机bankruptcies 破产 ; bankruptcy的复数automotive industry 汽车工业；汽车制造业more than 比…更;比…更重要 ; 超出需要;超乎寻常tripled 成为三倍 ; 使增至三倍 ; triple的过去分词和过去式pandemic 流行病 ; 大流行病 ; 大流行的 ; 普遍的，全世界的appetites 食欲 ; 胃口 ; 强烈欲望 ; appetite的复数financial support 财务支援

Preparing for the Bullwhip

为牛鞭做准备

For veterans of supply chain management, COVID-19 is not their first rodeo, even if it seems as though an entirely different kind of untamed animal has entered the arena. Although every disruption, whether volcano or virus, boom or bust, brings unique challenges, the fundamentals of preparing for and responding to disruptive conditions such as a recession remain the same. It entails understanding a company’s specific supply chain vulnerabilities, determining what can be done about them beforehand, monitoring the situation for disruptions, and implementing countermeasures as needed.

对于供应链管理的资深人士来说，COVID-19 并不是他们的第一个牛仔竞技表演，即使看起来一种完全不同的野性动物似乎已经进入了竞技场。尽管每次破坏，无论是火山爆发还是病毒，繁荣还是萧条，都会带来独特的挑战，但准备和应对经济衰退等破坏性条件的基本原则仍然相同。它需要了解公司的特定供应链漏洞，事先确定可以采取哪些措施，监控中断情况，并根据需要实施对策。

veterans 经验丰富的人 ; 老手 ; 退伍军人 ; 老兵 ; 老战士 ; 老水兵 ; veteran的复数rodeo 牛仔竞技比赛 ; 竞技even if 即使 ; 尽管 ; 纵然it seems 似乎；看来；似as though 好像 ; 【参见】as ifkind of 有点 ; 稍微 ; 有几分untamed 野性的 ; 未驯服的 ; 未受抑制的 ; 未调教的arena 竞技场 ; 圆形运动场 ; 圆形剧场 ; 斗争场所 ; 竞争舞台 ; 活动场所

disruptive 引起混乱的 ; 扰乱性的 ; 破坏性的such as 例如 ; 像 ; 象…这样 ; 诸如…之类entails 牵涉 ; 需要 ; 使必要 ; entail的第三人称单数supply chain 供应链vulnerabilities 原型是vulnerabilitybe done 完毕beforehand 预先 ; 事先disruptions 中断;扰乱;混乱 ; disruption的复数

1. Identify essential partners. The first step to managing the threat of supply chain disruption is understanding which partners are hard to replace and are providers of essential supplies, services, or access to customers. The bullwhip effect suggests that upstream suppliers are more vulnerable to a sharp downturn in demand. They have experienced an amplified demand surge (driving up costs via added capacity and inventories) that will inevitably be followed by an amplified plummeting of demand (causing severe cost-revenue imbalances). These partners are likely to sit deep in the supply chain for critical materials, additives, and specialized parts. Furthermore, in most industries, key suppliers serve most, if not all, players — and a downturn that reduces orders from multiple customers puts such suppliers at existential risk.确定重要的合作伙伴。管理供应链中断威胁的第一步是了解哪些合作伙伴难以替代，哪些合作伙伴是基本供应、服务或客户访问的提供者。牛鞭效应表明上游供应商更容易受到需求急剧下滑的影响。它们经历了放大的需求激增（通过增加产能和库存推高成本），随后不可避免地会出现放大的需求暴跌（导致严重的成本收入不平衡）。这些合作伙伴很可能在关键材料、添加剂和专用零件的供应链中占有一席之地。此外，在大多数行业中，关键供应商为大多数（如果不是全部）参与者提供服务——而减少来自多个客户的订单的低迷使这些供应商面临生存风险。threat 威胁 ; 恐吓 ; 凶兆 ; 征兆 ; 构成威胁的人 ; 形成威胁的事物supply chain 供应链disruption 中断;扰乱;混乱access to 接近，去…的通路，使用…的机会bullwhip 长而重的鞭子upstream 上游 ; 逆流 ; 向上游 ; 上游的 ; 溯流而上的vulnerable 脆弱的 ; 易受…伤害的downturn 经济低迷 ; 衰退，下降，衰退期in demand 很受欢迎;需求量大inventories 清单 ; 财产清单 ; 存货，库存 ; 开列清单 ; inventory的第三人称单数和复数followed by 紧随其后;其次是plummeting 暴跌 ; 速降 ; plummet的现在分词imbalances 失衡 ; 不平衡 ; 不公平 ; imbalance的复数deep in 深陷于supply chain 供应链if not 要是不;即使不existential 存在主义的 ; 关于人类存在的 ; 与人类存在有关的
2. Assess partners’ financial resilience. Gaining insight into the strength of each essential partner’s balance sheet and their ability to weather a downturn helps a company predict where it might be stung by the disruptive effects of the bullwhip. This helps focus risk management on those partners that are essential but financially weak.评估合作伙伴的财务弹性。深入了解每个重要合作伙伴的资产负债表实力及其抵御低迷的能力，有助于公司预测它可能会受到牛鞭的破坏性影响的地方。这有助于将风险管理重点放在那些重要但财务薄弱的合作伙伴身上。resilience 恢复力 ; 弹力 ; 适应力 ; 快速恢复的能力 ; 还原能力insight into 洞察 ; 对…深刻理解 ; 洞察力balance sheet 资产负债表 ; 决算表 ; 资金平衡表downturn 经济低迷 ; 衰退，下降，衰退期stung 刺 ; 蜇 ; 叮 ; 感觉刺痛，感觉灼痛 ; 激怒 ; 使不安 ; sting的过去分词和过去式disruptive 引起混乱的 ; 扰乱性的 ; 破坏性的bullwhip 长而重的鞭子risk management 风险管理financially 财政上 ; 金融上 ; 经济上
3. Monitor partners and the situation. Companies must monitor changing conditions both up and down their supply chains, especially any financially weak essential partners, in order to quickly detect and alert management of any problems. In preparation for a downturn, companies should seek greater visibility into the health of their direct suppliers, as well as those deeper in their supply chains. Fortunately, in the past 20 years, several sophisticated alert services have emerged that can help in this regard.At the same time, more timely data can now provide visibility into true consumer demand, helping companies and especially the deeper-tier suppliers assess the direction of the market. For example, when COVID-19 first entered the public consciousness, data such as smartphone locations, credit card transactions, and restaurant reservation systems documented the rapid shift in where consumers went and how they spent their money.监控合作伙伴和情况。公司必须监控其供应链上下游的变化情况，尤其是任何财务薄弱的重要合作伙伴，以便快速发现任何问题并提醒管理层。为应对经济低迷，企业应更深入地了解其直接供应商以及供应链中更深层次的供应商的健康状况。幸运的是，在过去的 20 年中，出现了一些可以在这方面提供帮助的复杂警报服务。与此同时，更及时的数据现在可以提供对真实消费者需求的可见性，帮助公司，尤其是更深层次的供应商评估市场方向。例如，当 COVID-19 首次进入公众意识时，智能手机位置、信用卡交易和餐厅预订系统等数据记录了消费者去向和花钱方式的快速转变。up and down 上上下下 ; 来来回回financially 财政上 ; 金融上 ; 经济上in order to 为了 ; 以便 ; 目的在于 ; 要想……of any 在所有的…当中downturn 经济低迷 ; 衰退，下降，衰退期as well as 以及 ; 既…又… ; 除…之外 ; 此外Fortunately 幸运地 ; 交好运地 ; 吉利地in the past 在过去help in 搀扶着进去 ; 帮助干……，在……方面帮助 ; 搀扶着进入At the same time 同时 ; 然而;不过consumer demand 消费者需求assess 评估 ; 评定 ; 估算 ; 估定For example 例如 ; 比如such as 例如 ; 像 ; 象…这样 ; 诸如…之类credit card 信用卡reservation 预订 ; 预约 ; 保留意见 ; 疑惑 ; 保留地，居留地documented 记录，记载 ; 用文件证明 ; document的过去分词和过去式and how <美>非常，很
4. Support threatened partners. In the event of a significant recession, economic crisis, or other existential threat to an essential partner in the supply chain, a prepared company can be ready to offer support. During the 2008 financial crisis, stronger companies used their better credit ratings to secure loans for troubled partners, procure key materials on their behalf, or provide commitments for order volume. Some even took an equity stake in critical suppliers. Several automotive companies collaborated to prop up key industry suppliers.支持受威胁的合作伙伴。如果供应链中的重要合作伙伴面临严重的经济衰退、经济危机或其他生存威胁，准备好的公司可以随时提供支持。在 2008 年金融危机期间，实力较强的公司利用其更好的信用评级为陷入困境的合作伙伴获得*款贷**、代表他们采购关键材料或提供订单量承诺。有些人甚至持有关键供应商的股权。几家汽车公司合作支持主要的行业供应商。economic crisis 经济危机supply chain 供应链be ready to 准备好 ; 准备做某事 ; 预备financial crisis 金融危机for order 准备出售，等待命令stake in 立桩围住prop up 架 ; 搁 ; 靠 ; 支撑 ; 维持key industry 基本工业；主要工业

Tactics for Managing in a Downturn

低迷时期的管理策略

When the downturn hits, companies should be ready to deploy several tried-and-true tactics, including the following:

• Conserving cash by reducing inventory levels, increasing days payable outstanding, and reducing days receivable, while being careful not to endanger the viability of vital suppliers.
• Reducing the number of suppliers and focusing procurement on large and robust ones.
• Reducing the number of product varieties (SKUs) and focusing on the fast sellers, which lowers costs by reducing manufacturing changeovers and increasing on-shelf availability of the top sellers.
• Moving to more economical (and slower) modes of transportation, such as ocean instead of air, rail instead of truck, and truckload instead of less-than-truckload shipping.
• Focusing on lower-priced and private-label goods as consumers become more frugal.
• Prioritizing certain customers if the company will not have enough products to fulfill all orders.

当经济低迷袭来时，公司应该准备好部署几种行之有效的策略，包括：

通过降低库存水平、增加应付天数和减少应收天数来节省现金，同时注意不要危及重要供应商的生存能力。减少供应商数量，将采购重点放在大型和稳健的供应商上。减少产品品种 (SKU) 的数量并专注于畅销产品，从而通过减少制造转换和增加畅销产品的上架可用性来降低成本。转向更经济（和更慢）的运输方式，例如海运代替空运，铁路代替卡车，卡车运输代替零担运输。随着消费者变得更加节俭，专注于低价和自有品牌商品。如果公司没有足够的产品来完成所有订单，则优先考虑某些客户。

be ready to 准备好 ; 准备做某事 ; 预备days receivable 应收账款平均天数changeovers 改变，转变，更换 ; changeover的复数such as 例如 ; 像 ; 象…这样 ; 诸如…之类instead of 而不是 ; 代替 ; 作为…的替换less-than-truckload 零担的

At the same time, as economist Paul Romer said, “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” Executives should prepare to seize the opportunity of the downturn to evaluate suppliers and customers along the supply chain and make transformative changes as part of their recovery efforts.

与此同时，正如经济学家保罗·罗默 (Paul Romer) 所说，“一场危机是一种可怕的浪费。” 高管们应该准备好抓住经济低迷的机会，评估供应链上的供应商和客户，并在恢复工作中做出变革性的改变。

economist 经济学家 ; 经济专家Romer 罗默terrible 可怕的 ; 非常讨厌的 ; 令人极不快的 ; 危害极大的 ; 造成极大伤害的 ; 非常严重的 ; 不痛快 ; 有病 ; 劣质的 ; 极度的 ; 很downturn 经济低迷 ; 衰退，下降，衰退期supply chain 供应链transformative 有改革能力的part of 部分

Living With the Uncertainties of Our Complex Era

生活在复杂时代的不确定性中

The first rule of forecasting — that all forecasts are wrong — has seldom been truer, given the unpredictability of coronavirus mutations, central bank action, and consumer behavior. First and foremost, COVID-19 hasn’t been defeated, although vaccines and better treatments have certainly reduced transmission, disease severity, and death in many places. Waning immunity and mutating COVID-19 variants keep fueling waves of cases and government restrictions, affecting supply chains.

鉴于冠状病毒突变、央行行动和消费者行为的不可预测性，预测的第一条规则——所有预测都是错误的——很少是正确的。首先，COVID-19 并没有被击败，尽管疫苗和更好的治疗方法确实减少了许多地方的传播、疾病严重程度和死亡。免疫力下降和 COVID-19 变体变异不断加剧病例和政府限制的浪潮，影响供应链。

truer 笔直地 ; 不偏不斜地 ; 直言相告 ; 实话实说 ; 符合事实的 ; 确实的 ; 如实的 ; 实质的，真正的 ; 名副其实的 ; 真正的 ; true的比较级coronavirus 日冕形病毒，冠状病毒central bank 中央银行consumer behavior 消费者行为mutating 变异，突变 ; 转变 ; 转换 ; mutate的现在分词fueling 加燃料（fuel的ing形式）

Second, the timing and intensity of central banks’ response to inflation remains unclear. If central bankers make choices that accommodate political pressures, inflation may become further entrenched, increasing the costs and associated hardships of fighting it later.

其次，央行应对通胀的时机和力度仍不明朗。如果央行行长做出适应政治压力的选择，通胀可能会变得更加根深蒂固，从而增加以后与之抗争的成本和相关困难。

timing 定时 ; 时间的选择 ; 特定时间 ; 时机的掌握 ; 火候的把握 ; 节奏 ; 掌握节奏的技巧 ; 点火时间控制 ; 为…安排时间 ; 选择…的时机 ; 计时 ; 测定…所需的时间 ; 在某一时刻击球 ; time的现在分词intensity 强烈 ; 紧张 ; 剧烈 ; 强度 ; 烈度response to 对…的反应inflation 通货膨胀 ; 通胀率 ; 充气unclear 不清楚的 ; 不确定的 ; 难以掌握的 ; 不完全明白 ; 不理解bankers 银行老板 ; 银行家 ; *家庄** ; banker的复数accommodate 容纳 ; 为提供住宿 ; 为…提供空间 ; 考虑到 ; 顾及 ; 帮忙 ; 顺应，适应pressures 压力 ; 挤压 ; 压强 ; 大气压 ; 施加压力 ; 迫使 ; 使增压 ; pressure的第三人称单数和复数entrenched 使处于牢固地位 ; 牢固确立 ; entrench的过去分词和过去式 ; 根深蒂固的hardships 艰难 ; 困苦 ; 拮据 ; hardship的复数

Consumers’ responses to COVID-19, inflation, and government actions are likewise difficult to predict. Might consumers hunker down under the threat of a resurgent virus or recessionary trends? Or might restriction-weary citizens throw caution to the wind and freely spend their accumulated cash and increased wages? Will scarcity accelerate spending, owing to a psychology of hoarding or fear of missing out? Or will high prices and fear of the future blunt demand?

消费者对 COVID-19、通货膨胀和政府行为的反应同样难以预测。消费者是否会在病毒卷土重来或衰退趋势的威胁下束手无策？或者，厌倦了限制的公民可能会把谨慎抛在脑后，自由地花掉他们积累的现金和增加的工资吗？由于囤积心理或害怕错过的心理，稀缺性会加速支出吗？还是高昂的价格和对未来需求减弱的恐惧？hunker 蹲下 ; 保守主义者

resurgent 复兴的 ; 恢复生机活力的 ; 再度流行的recessionary 经济衰退的accumulated cash 【财】累计现金scarcity 稀缺 ; 缺乏 ; 不足 ; 稀少owing to 因为 ; 由于hoarding 大幅广告牌 ; 临时围栏 ; 贮存 ; 聚藏 ; 秘藏 ; 贮藏 ; 囤积 ; hoard的现在分词

In the face of overwhelming uncertainty, many companies are likely to adopt a posture of watching and waiting. However, those organizations that prepare for action will be primed to navigate the next pandemic wave, outburst of inflation, government action, or recession. In this pandemic era, it seems particularly apt that it was microbiologist Louis Pasteur, to whom we owe our understanding that germs cause disease, who said, “Chance favors only the prepared mind.”

面对压倒性的不确定性，很多企业很可能会采取观望和等待的姿态。然而，那些准备采取行动的组织将准备好应对下一波大流行、通胀爆发、政府行动或衰退。在这个大流行的时代，微生物学家路易斯·巴斯德（Louis Pasteur）似乎特别贴切，因为我们知道细菌会导致疾病，他说：“机会只偏爱有准备的人。”

primed 事先指点 ; 使做好准备 ; 把准备好 ; 在打底漆 ; prime的过去分词和过去式pandemic 流行病 ; 大流行病 ; 大流行的 ; 普遍的，全世界的outburst 爆发 ; 迸发 ; 激增 ; 激化it seems 似乎；看来；似microbiologist 微生物学家Louis Pasteur 巴斯德germs 微生物 ; 细菌 ; 病菌 ; 起源 ; 发端 ; 萌芽 ; 胚芽 ; 胚原基 ; 芽孢 ; 胚胎

ABOUT THE AUTHORYossi Sheffi (@yossisheffi) is the Elisha Gray II Professor of Engineering Systems at MIT, director of the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics, and the author of The New (Ab)normal: Reshaping Business and Supply Chain Strategy Beyond COVID-19 (MIT CTL Media, 2020).

关于作者Yossi Sheffi ( @yossisheffi ) 是麻省理工学院 Elisha Gray II 工程系统教授，麻省理工学院运输和物流中心主任，《新 (Ab)normal: Reshaping Business and Supply Chain Strategy Beyond COVID-19》一书的作者(麻省理工学院 CTL 媒体，2020）。

参考链接：https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/prepare-for-the-bullwhips-sting/?fbclid=IwAR2mo2yKWMC7tNpbHnhz977M8vbJrNYNvNGMt8YFxBMM7B08GiDKQXuphQM