译者 王为

文中黑字部分为原文，蓝字部分为译文，红字部分为译者注释或补充说明

ALL EYES TO THE FED

by Kevin Muir

As market practitioners, too often we obsess with financial indicators when it comes to forecasting Federal Reserve policy. I have heard plenty of tongue-firmly-planted-in-cheek comments about how the Fed needs to cut rates because we are a whopping 8% from all-time highs. These pundits joke that the Fed needs to come to the rescue of the stock market bulls as they are not used to this many downticks.

作为沉浸金融市场多年的人士，我们在预测美联储货币政策走向的时候经常过多地关注金融指标的表现。我听到很多“半是当真半是玩笑”的说法：美股已从历史最高点摔下来8%了，因此美联储需要降个息了。这些专家们打趣说联储需要像个雷霆救兵一样从天而降把股市中的多头们捞出来，因为这帮人被一波又一波的下跌趋势线吓尿了。

Yeah, I get it. It seems ridiculous that less than a 10% decline would prompt calls for a Fed cut. But those who dismiss a Fed rate cut are missing the big picture.

乍一听上去确实挺搞笑的，股市还没跌上10%就开始跪求联储降息了，但那些认为联储不应降息的人士有点只见树木不见森林。

The Federal Reserve is tasked with managing the economy, not the markets. Of course the markets are an important part of this responsibility. And no doubt, the Federal Reserve would be foolish to not take the signals it sends into account, but at the end of the day, their ultimate goal is to ensure the best functioning of the economy for the citizens of the United States.

联储的任务是管理经济，而不是给市场当保姆。当然了，维护市场稳定也是其职责之一。有一点是确定的，联储如果对市场发出的信号置之不理那就太不着调了，但说到底联储的最终目标是为经济的正常运行保驾护航，确保美国公民从中受惠。

One of my main beefs with Fed forecasters is that too often they make their analysis too complicated. Sure, the Central Bank has all these fancy econometric models that influence their decisions, but the FOMC board members are people, and their motivation is too plainly simple. They don't want to make a mistake. They don't want to be embarrassed. They weigh the consequences of being right and wrong, and then vote accordingly.

我对那些联储政策观察家们有一个很大的不满，这些人在做预测的时候总是把问题考虑得太复杂。没错，央行会受到各种花里胡哨的经济预测模型的影响，但联储公开市场委员会的成员也是人，他们想的东西其实很简单。他们不想犯错！他们不想出丑！他们会先权衡利害关系，然后再投票做出决策。

Usually this results in them being behind the curve. Why risk your career with a bold call? The risk reward does not favour doing anything except reluctantly going along with what the market prices in.

这种做法通常会导致联储的行动落后于市场的期盼。干吗要为了响应市场上那些耸人听闻的呼吁而拿自己的职业生涯来冒险？谨慎小心地跟在市场报价后面走，报价水平隐含啥就做啥，这样做的风险收益比不是挺好的吗？

However, I contend this flu situation is different. Let's face it - the Federal Reserve is the only Central Bank that matters. With world trade grinding to a halt, what the world needs is US dollars. Sure, the ECB can do an emergency cut to an even-more-negative rate, but is that going to help their economy? Not a bloody chance. I would argue it would actually hurt more than help. Could Australia or another smaller Central Bank cut? No doubt. But what is that really going to do?

但我说这次的疫情可是非同寻常，不得不承认在所有这些央行中只有美联储能指望得上。随着全球贸易活动趋向中止，全世界最缺的就是美元。没错，欧洲央行是可以来个紧急降息把欧元利率的水平压进更深的负利率区间，但这能提振欧元区的经济吗？根本没戏，要我说，这实际上是在伤害欧元区的经济而不是拉它一把。澳大利亚或其他哪个小国家的央行会降息？毋庸置疑，肯定会。但真正应该做的是啥？

The Federal Reserve needs to supply the US dollars the world so desperately needs.

美联储需要提供全世界都翘首以盼的美元资金头寸。

Some might argue it's not the Federal Reserve's duty to tune their monetary policy to global needs. Don't disagree.

有人可能会说调整货币政策以满足其他国家的需求不是美联储该干的活，于我心有戚戚焉，我也同意这一点。

But with today's warning from the CDC, the game has changed. From an articled titled "CDC Says Americans should brace for 'significant disruptions'":

但在今早美国国家疾病防控中心CDC发出警告后，一切都变了。下面的内容来自一篇题为“CDC说美国应为大的动荡做好准备”的文章。

"We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad."

“我们呼吁美国民众应为局势可能的恶化做好准备。”

Public health experts on Tuesday began publicly discussing the coronavirus as a disease which is expected to spread across much of the world population, including throughout the United States.

“周二美国公共卫生方面的专家开始公开讨论将新冠病毒确定为一种有可能波及包括美国在内的全球大多数人口的流行性疾病。”The CDC issued a warning Tuesday that it expects the illness to spread in the U.S. and that Americans should prepare themselves for "significant disruption in their daily lives."

“CDC于周二发布了一项警告，认为新冠疫情有可能会在美国境内扩散，美国人应做好准备以应对日常生活方面会受到的严重干扰。”"Ultimately we expect we will see community spread in the United States," Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC told reporters. "It's not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses. We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad."

“我们预测新冠疫情最终会在美国境内发展到社区传播的程度，”美国国家疾病防控中心CDC下属的免疫和呼吸道疾病全国中心的主管南希是这样对记者表示的，“这不是一个会不会发生的问题，而是何时会发生以及全美会有多少人染上重疾的问题。我们呼吁美国民众应为疫情可能的恶化做好准备。”

The reality is that the coronavirus has not been contained, and is now spreading to the rest of the world. You can't put the toothpaste back in the tube. The CDC warning for Americans is sober and realistic.

事实是新冠疫情没有得到有效遏制，如今正在全球范围内快速扩散。局面有点刹不住车了，向美国民众发出警告的美国国家疾病防控中心很清醒很现实。

Now, let's imagine you are an FOMC board member. You can wait until this problem gets worse. You can wait for the bond market to rally another 10 handles and the stock market collapses another 8%. And then, when the fear is truly palpable, you can cut rates.

现在假设你是美联储公开市场委员会的委员，你可以袖手旁观直到局势出现恶化。你可以等到债券的报价再涨上十个整数位，股市再跌个8%，然后等恐慌情绪清晰可见了再降息。

But, why not cut preemptively? It is plainly obvious that you are the only game in town. This problem is so large and encompassing, as the leader of the financial world, the task falls to you.

但问题是，为啥不先发制人赶紧降息呢？很明显，美联储是全世界唯一的指望。局势是如此的严峻和紧迫，重担一下子就落到美联储这个全球金融领域最后话事人的肩上了。

As a Fed board member, ask yourself what are the consequences of being late? The world remembers you as the mopes who helped plunge the world into a recession during a generational unique pandemic. And what are the consequences of being early? Not much. You might fuel this stock market bubble. But on the other hand, most everyone (Wall Street, Donald Trump, homeowners) wants lower rates, so the pushback will be mostly from a bunch of hard-money old men yelling at kids to get off their lawn.

作为美联储公开市场委员会的委员，请扪心自问在这节骨眼上磨磨蹭蹭会有啥后果？全世界都会埋怨你在这个多少代都没见过的疾病全球大流行的时候没有及时出手将全球经济从衰退的边缘挽救出来。反过来，在局势恶化之前先行一步降息有啥后果吗？没啥后果，可能会把股市泡沫吹得再大一点罢了。但另一方面，大多数人（比如华尔街，比如特朗普，再比如房屋的业主们）都希望看到利率水平往下走，因此反对的声音主要会来自那帮手里不差钱，嘴上高喊“臭小子们别碰我的地盘”的老家伙们。

It is clear to me that for the first time in a long time, there is a decent chance for an emergency rate cut. I am not predicting it. I am not sure if the Fed has the bravery to do something this out of the ordinary.

我很清楚，这是很长一段时间以来首次有可能见到的紧急情况下的降息。我不指望这种情况一定会发生，我拿不准美联储是否有勇气在当前这个非常的时期有所作为。

But if I was a FOMC board member, I would be pushing hard for it. Yeah, maybe it would be overkill, but if I was wrong, I would just take it back next quarter. Being too easy would be a welcome development as it would mean the virus didn't spread as badly as feared.

但如果我是美联储公开市场委员会的委员，我会力主降息。没错，这样做也许会有点用力过猛，但如果我这把搞错了，我只需要在下个季度再纠正过来就是了。水放多了人人都欢喜，因为这意味着疫情带来的影响没有想象中的那么糟。

I am sure to get all sorts of flak for this attitude, but if you have moral qualms with my view, then ignore it and simply ask yourself, what will the Fed do? That's all that matters. My conclusion is that the chance of a inter-meeting rate cut is higher than the market believes. Not because the stock market is falling, rather because this is a serious economic situation and the Fed's liquidity is desperately needed. Let's hope they realize this before it is too late.

我心里很清楚，我会因为这种态度而受到各种各样的指责，如果你们中有人对我的观点存在道德上的疑虑，当我没说就是了，但也请问问自己：美联储会如何行动？这才是问题的关键。我的结论是美联储在两次例会之间下决心紧急降息的概率远超市场的想象。这样做不是因为股票市场在大跌，而是因为经济形势十分危急，急需美联储提供美元的流动性，但愿美联储会在局面变得不可收拾之前早点认识到这一点。

PS: I know the Fed can provide liquidity with tools others than just interest rates. I anticipate that swap lines and other measures will also be incorporated into their announcement.

另：我知道美联储提供流动性并非只有降息这一条路，还有其他的手段可以使用，我认为美联储与其他国家央行之间的货币互换协议及其他的举措也会出现在联储的后续声明中。