Donald Trump proclaims that trade wars are "good" and "easy to win." But if he leads the United States into a conflict with China, no more than a Pyrrhic victory could be expected.
美国总统唐纳德•特朗普声称，贸易战是“好事”、“很容易打赢”。但是，如果他执意升级中美贸易战，即便取胜，美国也将付出惨痛的代价，得不偿失。
The reality is that a trade war would hurt both sides. What looks like a good deal for the US in the short run may be a much better deal for China in the long run.
现实情况是，贸易战将使中美两败俱伤。短期来看对美国有利的交易，长期来看可能对中国更为有利。
For starters, China has many weapons in its trade arsenal – and it knows how to use them. To cite just a few examples: China could stop purchasing US aircraft, impose an embargo on US soybean products, or dump US Treasury securities and other financial assets. Chinese companies could also reduce their demand for US business services, and the government could persuade firms not to buy American goods.
首先，中国的贸易*器武**库中有许多*器武**——而且中国擅长使用这些*器武**。举几个例子：中国可以停止购买美国的飞机，对美国大豆产品实施禁运，或者抛售美国国债和其他金融资产。中国企业也可以减少对美国商业服务的需求，中国政府可以说服企业不要购买美国商品。
But that's just the start should a trade war break out. China is also – indirectly – one of America's biggest employers. Consider what would happen if China switched all of its commercial aircraft contracts from US-based Boeing to France's Airbus. That move alone would cost the US some 179,000 jobs.
但这只是贸易战爆发伊始中国所能采取的措施。中国也间接地是美国最大的雇主之一。试想一下，如果中国将其所有的商业飞机合同从美国的波音公司转到法国的空客公司，将会发生什么？仅这一举措就会让美国失去约17.9万个就业岗位。
Moreover, China controls key components in global supply chains and production networks. If China threw sand into those chains' gears, the disruptions would be global, affecting far more than Americans' abilities to buy an iPhone.
此外，中国控制着全球供应链和生产网络中的关键部件。如果中国向这些链条的齿轮上撒一把沙子，其影响将是全球性的，受影响的将远远不只是美国人购买iPhone的能力。
While the weapons are well known, the tactics are less predictable. A few scenarios are possible.
虽然这些*器武**是众所周知的，但战术却是不可预测的。可能会出现以下几种情况。
Because an escalating trade war with symmetric import barriers would be reciprocal, China and the US would probably initiate disputes in specific sectors, as with Trump's tariffs on foreign steel imports. He could also block bilateral investment flows by citing national security concerns, as he has been doing. And he might even move to halt US government purchases from Chinese companies.
由于相互设置进口壁垒，贸易战升级，中美两国很可能在特定领域发生争端，就像特朗普对进口钢铁征收关税那样。他还可以以国家安全为由阻止双边投资流动，这也是他一直在做的。他甚至可能采取行动，使美国政府停止向中国企业采购。
In the short term, a trade tussle would mean painful income and job losses for both sides. But the benefits to China could eventually outweigh its immediate losses.
短期内，贸易争端意味着中美双方都将痛苦地看到收入和就业机会减少。但是当尘埃落定，对中国来说，贸易争端可能远远利大于弊。
Chinese authorities have long worked to establish a growth model that is less reliant on exports and more dependent on domestic consumption. The shock of a US-led trade war could force China to open up, repeal measures that protect infant industries for too long, and break the vicious circle that perpetuates distortions in the domestic economy.
长期以来，中国政府一直致力于调整经济增长模式，从依赖出口转向依赖内需。美国主导的贸易战带来的冲击可能迫使中国扩大开放，终止长期以来保护新兴产业的措施，并打破使国内经济长期扭曲的恶性循环。
If that were to happen, Trump's bluster might prove prescient. A trade war really could be "good" – just not in the way he expects.
如果这种情况真的发生，特朗普口出狂言还是有些先见之明的，贸易战可能确实是“好事”——只不过不是对美国而言而已。
(版权归属Project Syndicate/Copyright Project Syndicate)
