债务余额为620亿元人民币！穆迪将广州富力评级下调至B1前景负面
房地产究竟怎么样？一方面很多人在排队抢购，另一方面，有关方面对于房地产的放松似乎一直没有表态，监管可能还是采用水龙头模式，如此，一些房地产企业在这次大潮中倒下的可能性越来越的，现在第一个危机的可能就是富力了，而对于恒大富力等企业，在香港发出的垃圾债可能还能维护下去，只要能发债....。】穆迪将广州富力评级下调至B1，富力香港评级下调至B2；前景负面Moody's downgrades Guangzhou R&F to B1 and R&F HK to B2; outlook negative
穆迪投资者服务公司将广州富力地产有限公司（广州富力）的企业家族评级（CFR）从Ba3降至B1，并将富力地产（香港）的CFR从B1降至B2 ）有限公司（R＆F HK）。
所有前景都评级变为负面。
至此，2020年4月3日开始的对广州富力和香港富力评级的审查结束。
评级理由
穆迪高级副总裁曾荫权表示：“广州富力的CFR降级反映了我们对其运营现金流疲弱以及未来12-18个月到期的大量债务的担忧。”
尽管穆迪公司报告称其2019年的年度合同销售额为人民币1,380亿元，但穆迪估计其土地出让前的经营现金流量仍约为人民币100亿元，约占合同销售额的7％，这一水平远低于其评级的中国房地产同行。
广州富力的经营现金流的这种弱势在短期内不太可能得到实质改善，原因是其2019年的合同销售增长5％疲软以及2020年前四个月合同销售同比下降23％。
该公司的现金收款率在2019年也有所下降，而其应收账款却有所增加。如果这些方面没有任何改善，公司的财务实力将仍然很弱。
截至2019年底，广州富力的债务余额为620亿元人民币，且在未来12个月内到期。截至2019年底，该公司的现金持有量为380亿元人民币，而预计未来12个月的经营现金流量不足以偿还这些债务。因此，该公司将需要筹集新债务以为其即将到期的债务提供资金。
该公司的债务杠杆率很高，2019年的收入/调整后债务比率较低，为45％。穆迪（Moody's）预计，未来12-18个月该比率将达到50％-55％。公司的高债务杠杆降低了其借入更多*款贷**的能力，从而限制了业务增长。广州富力的高债务水平还将使未来12-18个月的息税前利润/利息保持在2.2倍至2.7倍的温和水平，而2019年为2.2倍。
此外，中国疲软的经济形势和谨慎的投资者风险偏好增加了广州富力以合理成本筹集新债以偿还到期债务的能力的不确定性。
广州富力的B1 CFR反映了该公司在中国住宅开发市场及其在中国地域多元化的土地储备中循环运作的往绩。它还考虑了流动性弱和债务杠杆高的评级限制。
富力香港的CFR评级下调至B2级，反映了其母公司在有需要时提供财务和运营支持的能力减弱，以及鉴于其酒店业务经营环境充满挑战，其独立信贷质量可能会下降。
富力香港的CFR B2评级是根据穆迪在需要时对广州富力的支持评估得出的一个等级的提升，原因是：（1）广州富力对富力香港拥有全部所有权，并有意维持其股份；（2）富力香港作为集团从海外银行和资本市场筹集资金以投资中国房地产项目以及海外投资的主要平台；（3）近年来，广州富力为富力香港提供财务支持的往绩记录包括提供富力香港契约和富力香港的担保债券的股权购买承诺；（4）倘若富力香港违约，广州富力的声誉风险。
富力香港的流动资金状况也较弱。截至2019年12月31日，富力香港持有的现金（包括限制性现金）为人民币79.9亿元，而短期债务为人民币123亿元。该公司依靠广州富力的支持获得资金。
在环境，社会和治理（ESG）因素方面，穆迪考虑了广州富力主要股东的集中所有权。
尽管如此，广州富力的九名成员包括三名独立非执行董事和两名非执行董事。此外，对于在香港联合交易所上市的公司，公司还必须遵守《公司治理守则》所要求的其他内部治理结构和标准。
该公司在公开其业务和财务活动方面是透明的。它的财务管理支持使用债务杠杆来最大程度地提高股东回报，其派息率高于许多同业。
负面前景反映了广州富力及富力香港在未来12至18个月的高融资需求。广州富力的负面展望也反映了由于现金回收率低和/或应收账款增加导致其经营现金流疲软。
-- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded to B1 from Ba3 the corporate family rating (CFR) of Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd. (Guangzhou R&F) and to B2 from B1 the CFR of R&F Properties (HK) Company Limited (R&F HK).
All the outlooks are changed to negative from rating under review.
This concludes the review on the ratings of Guangzhou R&F and R&F HK initiated on 3 April 2020.
RATINGS RATIONALE
"The downgrade of Guangzhou R&F's CFR reflects our concern over its weak operating cash flow and the sizeable amount of debt maturing over the next 12-18 months," says Kaven Tsang, a Moody's Senior Vice President.
Despite the company's reported annual contracted sales of RMB138 billion in 2019, Moody's estimates that its operating cash flow before land payments registered around RMB10 billion, representing about 7% of contracted sales, a level that is far below that of its rated Chinese property peers.
This weakness in Guangzhou R&F's operating cash flow is unlikely to materially improve in the near term, given its weak 5% growth in contracted sales in 2019 and the 23% year-on-year decline in contracted sales in the first four months of 2020.
The company's cash collection rate also declined in 2019 while its accounts receivable increased. If there is no improvement in these areas, the company's financial strength will remain weak.
Guangzhou R&F had RMB62 billion in debt maturing over the next 12 months at the end of 2019. The company's cash holdings of RMB38 billion at the end of 2019 and estimated operating cash flows for the next 12 months will not be sufficient to cover these debt repayments. Therefore, the company will need to raise new debt to fund its upcoming debt maturities.
The company's debt leverage is high with its low revenue/adjusted debt ratio of 45% in 2019. Moody's expects the ratio will be at 50%-55% over the next 12-18 months. The company's high debt leverage reduces its ability to borrow more, in turn constraining business growth. Guangzhou R&F's high debt levels will also keep EBIT/interest modest at 2.2x-2.7x in the next 12-18 months, compared with 2.2x in 2019.
Moreover, the weak economic situation in China and cautious investor risk appetite increase uncertainty over Guangzhou R&F's ability to raise new debt at reasonable cost to repay its maturing debt.
Guangzhou R&F's B1 CFR reflects the company's track record of operating through the cycles in China's residential development market and its geographically diversified land bank in China. It also considers the rating constraints of weak liquidity and high debt leverage.
The downgrade of R&F HK's CFR to B2 reflects the weakened ability of its parent to provide financial and operational support in times of need and the potential deterioration in its standalone credit quality in view of the challenging operating environment for its hotel business.
R&F HK's CFR B2 rating incorporates a one-notch uplift based on Moody's assessment of support from Guangzhou R&F in times of need, because of (1) Guangzhou R&F's full ownership of R&F HK and its intention to maintain its stake; (2) R&F HK's role as the primary platform for the group to raise funds from offshore banks and capital markets to invest in property projects in China, as well as for overseas investments; (3) Guangzhou R&F's track record of financial support to R&F HK, including the provision of keepwell deeds and equity interest purchase undertakings of R&F HK's guaranteed bonds in recent years; and (4) the reputational risks for Guangzhou R&F if R&F HK were to default.
R&F HK's liquidity position is also weak. As of 31 December 2019, R&F HK had cash holdings, including restricted cash, of RMB 7.99 billion, compared to short-term debt of RMB12.3 billion. The company relies on support from Guangzhou R&F to access funding.
In terms of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors, Moody's has considered the concentrated ownership by Guangzhou R&F's key shareholders.
Nevertheless, Guangzhou R&F's nine-member board of directors includes three independent non-executive directors and two non-executive directors. Additionally, the company is subject to other internal governance structures and standards required under the Corporate Governance Code for companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
The company is transparent in disclosing its business and financial activities. Its financial management favours the use of debt leverage that maximizes return to shareholders, and its dividend payouts are higher than many of its rated peers.
The negative outlooks reflect Guangzhou R&F and R&F HK's high refinancing needs over the next 12-18 months. The negative outlook of Guangzhou R&F also reflects its weak operating cash flow due to low cash collection rates and/or rising accounts receivable.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Moody's could downgrade Guangzhou R&F's CFR if (1) it does not improve its liquidity position in the near term; (2) contracted sales decline to a greater extent than that of its rated peers; or (3) its credit metrics weaken, with revenue/debt falling below 50% or EBIT/interest falling below 2x.
An upgrade of Guangzhou R&F's CFR is unlikely given the negative rating outlook. However, the outlook could return to stable if the company refinances its existing short-term debt, improves its operating cash flow, and cash coverage over short term debt -- i.e. cash/short-term debt -- to 1x.
Moody's could downgrade R&F HK rating if (1) Guangzhou R&F's rating is downgraded, (2) there is a reduction in the ownership by or weakening in support from Guangzhou R&F, or (3) it accelerates its development business and/or takes on aggressive land acquisitions that lead to a material deterioration in its debt leverage and liquidity.
The outlook on R&F HK's CFR could return to stable if its liquidity improves and the outlook on Guangzhou R&F returns to stable.
华尔街日报：中国房地产开发商带动亚洲垃圾债市场摆脱颓势
亚洲垃圾债券市场正在慢慢恢复生机，中国房地产开发商走在了该市场复苏的前列。随着中国房地产行业的增长势头增强，投资者再次开始购买亚洲风险较高的公司发行的新债。
亚洲垃圾债券市场正在慢慢恢复生机，中国房地产开发商走在了该市场复苏的前列。
亚洲垃圾债市场在3月份的全球抛售中遭受重创，之后的复苏速度慢于世界其他地区同类市场，特别是落后于美国高收益债券市场，后者有史以来首次获得美国联邦储备委员会（简称：美联储）的有限支持。
但投资者目前再次开始购买亚洲风险较高的公司发行的新债，这类债券的举借成本与更安全的国债相比差距略有下降。该局面有助于缓解实力较弱借款人的部分融资压力。
中国内地房地产开发商所发行的债券在亚洲高收益债券市场上占据了大部分份额，这些企业的新债发行活动自3月中旬起几乎陷入停顿。而现在一些借款人又返回市场发行美元债券。
本月早些时候，正荣地产集团有限公司(Zhenro Properties Group Limited, 6158.HK, 简称：正荣地产)发售了2亿美元的2024年到期债券，票面利率为8.35%，发行价略低于面值。该公司的竞争对手碧桂园控股有限公司(Country Garden Holdings Co., 2007.HK, 简称：碧桂园)在5月19日发售了5.44亿美元的2025年到期债券，票面利率为5.4%。碧桂园获得的信用评级不一，有投资级，也有低于投资级的级别。
中国房地产行业的发展动能正在改善，提振了开发商的债券。官方数据显示，今年1-4月住宅销售额同比下降16.5%，降幅小于1-3月期间的22.8%。4月平均房价较3月上涨0.4%。
一些投资者表示，在债券价格进一步上涨并推动收益率下降至更平常的水平之前，还有一些逢低买入机会。之前虽然中国因抗击疫情陷入停摆，但直到3月初，房地产业债券一直表现良好。
5月19日，衡量中国发行人高收益美元公司债走势的ICE BofA Asian Dollar High Yield Corporate China Issuers Index收益率跌至9.8%。这一数值较4月底的10.6%有所下降，但仍明显高于美国同类指数7.7%的水平。
法国巴黎资产管理(BNP Paribas Asset Management)驻伦敦的新兴市场固定收益部门主管桑博(Jean-Charles Sambor)表示：“这是自全球金融危机以来我见过的最好机会。”
桑博说，数十只中国房地产公司债券的收益率不应达到两位数百分比的水平。他认为，与持有类似评级的美国债券相比，投资者实际获得的收益率最多可高出4个百分点。
他提到了行业巨头中国恒大集团(China Evergrande Group, 3333.HK, 简称：中国恒大)，该公司明年到期的美元债券收益率约在10%至13%之间。桑博称，他还购买了亚洲地区其他高收益债券，包括深陷困境的斯里兰卡主权债券。
武汉的一处建筑工地。中国房地产领域的动能正在提高，从而提振了地产商的债券。
这种好转趋势进一步表明，对新兴市场债务的信心在更大范围内好转。3月份时，由于投资者争相满足赎回要求，资金从发展中国家大量流出。
据国际金融协会(Institute for International Finance)估算，4月份约有151亿美元重新流入新兴市场债券，部分扭转了3月份310亿美元外流的局面。
尽管如此，到目前为止有限的市场复苏并不均衡。亚洲许多高收益债券的交易价格仍处于表明存在金融压力的水平，而且未来几个月，投资者的热情可能还不会达到愿意向某些国家或自然资源等受困行业的借款人借出新资金的程度。
嘉实国际资产管理公司(Harvest Global Investments Ltd.)首席投资官Thomas Kwan表示，中国国内需求正在改善，新冠疫情的影响开始减退，相信与亚洲其他国家相比，中国从疫情中复苏的能力更强。
他表示，来自中资银行和投资公司的需求也提振了中国的美元债券。
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