据日本媒体日经新闻(Nikkei)援引日本财务省及其中央银行的数据,在2020年的4-7月期间,中国净购买了1.46万亿日元(约合138亿美元)的中长期JGB。这购买量是去年同期的3.6倍。
相比之下,美国同期的购买量仅增长了30%。日经新闻称,与此同时,欧洲卖出了价值3万亿日元的日本国债。
JGB债券的收益率约为零,由于回报率相对较低,因此它们不太可能成为一种投资选择。
但是分析人士告诉CNBC,中国想购买这些债券可能有其他原因。
Aberdeen Standard Investments全球固定收益投资总监Ross Hutchison表示:“当前环境的奇怪之处在于,JGB不再是一种显然没有吸引力的固定收益证券,具体取决于您购买所用的货币。”
Hutchison说,例如,中国实际上可以通过购买日元的30年期日本国债并将其货币敞口换回美元来赚取更多的投资。据他说,这样做可以额外增加0.56%。长期债券通常具有较高的收益率,因为投资者需要承担更高的风险才能长期持有。
货币互换的做法是,两方用不同的货币相互兑换等价的货币,可保护自己免受汇率风险的进一步影响。
“很多储备资金经理购买日本国债,然后将货币掉期或对冲回美元,获得了额外的'基础'溢价,”Aviva Investors的多元资产和宏观策略高级策略师David Nowakowski说。
Hutchison指出,由于人民币兑日元汇率在6月份飙升,中国也可能试图管理人民币升值。抛售人民币购买日元计价的日本国债,可能有助于抑制部分升值。
人民币兑美元汇率今年以来也大幅上涨,原因是在新冠疫情之后,中国经济又恢复了增长势头。
Nowakowski说,另一个因素是,与全球同类债券相比,日本国债的收益率并不是最低的。
他说:“即使在收益率为零的范围,实际上日本国债的收益率也只是略低于0%,比许多其他国家的债券更具吸引力,瑞典,瑞士和欧元区核心国家的债券收益率更低得多。”
由于疫情加剧,投资者纷纷转向政府债券的安全性,今年全球国债收益率已经下降。随着价格上涨,收益率会下降,因为它们的走势是反向的。
消息来源:CNBC
翻译:中华石化网
原文如下:
SINGAPORE — China’s recent purchase of Japanese government bonds surged to the highest level in more than three years – as the country more than tripled its holdings between April and July this year, compared to the previous year.
During those three months in 2020, China bought 1.46 trillion yen ($13.8 billion) of medium- to long-term JGBs on a net basis, according to Japanese media Nikkei, which cited data from Japan’s finance ministry and its central bank. That was 3.6 times more than the same period last year.
In comparison, the U.S. increased its purchases by only 30% in the same period, that data reportedly showed. Europe, meanwhile, sold off 3 trillion yen worth of JGBs, according to Nikkei.
Yields on JGBs are around zero, making them an unlikely option as an investment since the returns are comparatively low.
But analysts told CNBC there could be other reasons why China would want to buy those bonds.
“One of the odd things about the current environment is that JGBs are no longer an obviously unattractive fixed income security, depending on the currency you are funding the purchase in,” said Ross Hutchison, investment director of global fixed income at Aberdeen Standard Investments.
For instance, China can actually earn more on the investment by buying 30-year JGBs in the Japanese yen and swapping their currency exposure back into U.S. dollars, said Hutchison. It can pick up an additional 0.56% by doing so, according to him. Longer term bonds typically have higher yields as investors need to take on higher risks for holding on to them for a longer period of time.
The practice of a currency swap is when two parties exchange an equivalent amount of money with each other in different currencies, in order to protect themselves from further exposure to exchange rate risk, for instance.
“Many reserve managers buy JGBs and then swap or hedge the currency back into dollars, earning an additional ‘basis’ premium,” said David Nowakowski, a senior strategist of multi-asset and macro at Aviva Investors.
It’s also possible that China may be trying to manage the appreciation of the yuan, as the Chinese currency spiked against the Japanese yen in June, Hutchison pointed out. Selling off the yuan to buy JGBs, which are denominated in yen, could help to curb some of that appreciation.
The yuan has also broadly spiked against the U.S. dollar this year, as the Chinese economy gathers momentum again after what may have been the worst of the coronavirus pandemic.
Another factor is that in comparison to its global counterparts, Japanese government bonds do not have the lowest yields, Nowakowski said.
“Even with a zero yield — in fact JGB yields are slightly below 0% — Japan’s bond market is more attractive than many other countries’ bonds, with Sweden, Switzerland, and core Eurozone countries all having deeply negative yields,” he said.
Treasury yields globally this year have gone down as investors flocked to the safety of government bonds amid the worsening pandemic. As prices go up, yields fall as they move inversely to each other.