这个休赛季多伦多猛龙需要面对的最大问题已经不容回避——凯尔-洛瑞将成为一名完全自由球员。这件事情的决定权不在球队而在洛瑞自己，他走或者是留——让我们假设球队是想留下他的——这个决定已如中天悬剑一触即发，并将肯定成为推动猛龙休赛季操作，甚至是球队未来几年走向的第一块多米诺骨牌。
当然，洛瑞想不想留尽管在他自己，猛龙也需要想通：球队到底想不想让洛瑞留下，延续关系坚定核心以期卷土重来？如果猛龙志在夺冠，这个选择题非做不可。没有固定的正确或错误答案，也没有“为冠军大破大立彻底革命”对“保持不错的成绩和赏心悦目的打法”这样的尖锐对立，如果洛瑞留下，你怎么解释都说得通。
如果洛瑞离开呢？那么还安安稳稳地继续为以前的工作买单就没什么意义。留下塞尔吉-伊巴卡从财政上来看貌似合情合理，但结合工资帽来看这无疑会压缩洛瑞替代者的选择空间——无论你是从位置上来选择还是从天赋的角度选择。猛龙The Raptors face a tough call with Lowry and the core in general because they risk getting stuck in the middle, and that’s an even greater certainty with a DeMar DeRozan-Ibaka core. That group probably tops out around 45 wins and one playoff series win, and the financial flexibility gained by letting Lowry walk isn’t enough to see this group growing to substantially more. Lowry is the team’s ceiling, and the tank-or-compete decision is made substantially easier if he leaves.
我们并不能确定猛龙一定会走这条路，而且无论你喜欢或是讨厌这个想法都合理。球迷的感情偏向于感性和直觉，但是具体问题往往更加复杂，需要从更多角度考虑。如果猛龙决定重起炉灶，让我们看看会发生什么。
洛瑞出走
再重申一遍，因果律的第一环是洛瑞是否离开。Unfortunately for the Raptors, the sign-and-trade option that allowed them to recoup a pair of picks when Chris Bosh departed is a relic of a previous collective bargaining agreement. The sign-and-trade option still exists, but the player involved can no longer receive the extra year his prior team can offer him and the larger raises—Lowry doesn’t stand to make a penny more this way than signing as a true free agent. (That the Raptors can offer him up to an estimated $55.1 million more than anyone else remains the reason they’re probably still his most likely landing spot.)
That means a team like the Philadelphia 76ers has little reason to surrender an asset to facilitate the move. They can offer him the exact same deal with cap space. A sign-and-trade would only return the Raptors an asset if Lowry wants to land on a team without the full cap space required to sign him, which means Toronto can’t necessarily bank on getting something in return. That’s tough, but that’s the nature of the current collective bargaining agreement.
其他自由球员
前面已经说过，留下伊巴卡在洛瑞离队的前提下没有意义，即使伊巴卡自己再经得起考验也不行。留下PJ-塔克可能从球队文化的角度来看还不错，但是这名32岁的老将在菲尼克斯太阳效力四个赛季之后很可能寻求一份来自争冠球队的合同而不是跟着准备重建的猛龙耗费光阴。帕特里克-帕特森 Patrick Patterson might suddenly make sense on a short-term deal to increase his value after a tough end to his 2016-17, but the money he’d command would probably be better spent taking a flier on an upside play.
If the Raptors let all four free agents walk, they would have $81.2 million in salary committed to 11 players and their first-round draft pick, good for about $19.8 million in cap space.
兜售德罗赞
考虑到德罗赞对球队的重大意义，猛龙可能会悄无声息地做这件事，但是几乎可以肯定他们会为球队长期以来的头号得分手寻找一个新东家，这是写在重建剧本里的。德罗赞夏天就28岁了，在管理层眼里，是时候果断逃顶为寻找下一个年轻的核心球员做准备。假如德罗赞留在球队，30岁进入下滑期，没人能指望球队还能重新拾回竞争力。对球员自己来说It could be a case of doing right by the player, too, rather than subjecting him to those tough rebuilding seasons.
With four years and $111 million left on his deal (the fourth year is a player option), DeRozan isn’t the easiest of trade chips to make work, but because he signed slightly below the max before the final cap spike, he only stands to take up about 27 percent of a team’s cap rather than the 35 percent full-max free agents can command. He’s not a perfect fit for the modern NBA with a middling 3-point stroke and shaky defense. He’s also the league’s best mid-range scorer, is coming off the most efficient scoring season of his career on incredibly high usage, has taken strides as a playmaker, and seems to get better every year.
哪些球队想要德罗赞？情况比较复杂。可能猛龙球迷会更希望得到一个首轮前五的签位。魔术师约翰逊重建洛杉矶湖人的蓝图亟需一名明星球员，耐克也乐于看到Who might want him is complicated, and Raptors fans dreaming on a top-five pick in return probably need to recalibrate. Magic Johnson wants a star to build the Los Angeles Lakers around and Nike would surely love a player who modeled himself after Kobe Bryant while growing up in Compton returning home to take over not just Bryant’s team but also his sneaker legacy. But DeRozan isn’t a tidy fit with head coach Luke Walton’s style and the Lakers already have a few young guards they’re building around (and, if they keep their pick, could draft another in June). Charlotte, Dallas, Denver, and the Knicks are all varying degrees of interesting, and if the Raptors floated his name, there would surely be offers.
Trading one of the best players in franchise history is tough. DeRozan is too good to keep, though, in terms of assets left on the table and because he’d raise the team’s level of play too high to truly tank.
其他交易选项
多伦多猛龙很可能尝试交易那些前途不确定又不年轻的球员，但是选项只有寥寥几个。处理科里-约瑟夫并不太难，但是这名25岁控卫的廉价合同至少还有一年。德马雷-卡罗尔的合同如果Toronto could try to trade pretty much whoever isn’t nailed down and young, but the options are fairly limited. Cory Joseph could be dealt easily but is still just 25 and on a good deal for at least one more year. DeMarre Carroll’s contract becomes less burdensome if the team isn’t in the tax, and it might make more sense to try to let him rebound rather than using the stretch provision on him in this case. Jonas Valanciunas might still be deemed superfluous given the other centers on the roster, and at 25 and with some theoretical untapped upside could have a market. But his value is probably at a nadir with the center market as flooded as it is, so he, too, might make more sense as a hold.
The Raptors already have seven players on their first contracts plus a pick incoming. They would probably want to keep at least two or three of their remaining veterans around as culture-builder and stop-gap minutes-eaters, at least while their value is rehabilitated.
待追求的自由球员
猛龙潜在的帽下空间只有可怜的2000万美元With just shy of $20 million in potential cap space, and substantially more if DeRozan was dealt without taking significant salary back, the Raptors could take a flier or two on younger free agents with upside. This summer’s market isn’t exceptionally flush, and the Raptors wouldn’t want to tie up too much money with a handful of players hitting restricted free agency in 2018 (including Norman Powell), but they might not keep their powder dry entirely.
Among names who would fit the timeline, aren’t centers, and have some degree of upside depending on the price, are Otto Porter, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tony Snell, Tim Hardaway Jr., Shabazz Muhammad, Andre Roberson, Joe Ingles, and a bunch more. The RFA class is pretty deep, though it obviously comes with complications and the ability for other teams to match offer sheets.
当然啦，还有一生要强的迪昂-维特斯。
德韦恩-凯西的位置
猛龙会不会Whether or not the Raptors will trust head coach Dwane Casey to carry out their "culture reset" is somewhat unclear. There’s more of a case to be made for it if the Raptors are staying competitive. If they’re tearing down and rebuilding, it may make sense to shift in another direction with a fresh voice with player development experience. Whether that’s someone on the staff (Nick Nurse or Rex Kalamian), an outside hire, or the promotion of Jerry Stackhouse following an immensely successful season with Raptors 905, the coaching chair would almost definitely be under evaluation. Taking the chance on Stackhouse, who is going to be an NBA head coach one way or another at some point, would seem the best path in a rebuild.
向前看
Here’s where the realities of a teardown kind of sink in. This isn’t a sure thing, and it’s not a quick fix. Tanking, or whatever you want to call it (does a "strategic step back" work?), is the best way of acquiring a superstar on balance of probability, and acquiring a superstar is the best way to compete for a championship. Really, though, the odds are still quite slim—you can tank and lose the lottery multiple years in a row (even finishing dead last, the chances of landing the No. 1 pick are just 25 percent), you can be hit by injury luck, things can break right but the timing is off or you make the wrong call (shout out to Primo pasta and sauce), or everything can go well and you still find yourself in the same position Toronto’s been in the last two years, with a very good team trying to make the jump to great.
这样看来猛龙可能会在泥潭中挣扎两个赛季，这还是最乐观的估计。2017年选秀大会中猛龙可能获得一个额外的首轮签，但是顺位肯定不会太高。The draft is strong, though, so maybe Toronto comes out of it with two more solid building blocks. With the league light on tanking teams in the near-term, Toronto’s path to a high pick in 2018 might be an easy one, and Chad Ford has called the top of the 2018 draft "spectacular" (with a drop-off after the top tier). Local product R.J. Barrett is currently the No. 1 recruiting prospect for the college class of 2019 (2020 draft class) but could reclassify for 2018, which would put him in line to be a high pick in 2019. You can almost see the #GrinAndBarrett hashtag starting to trend in Toronto.
You can start to see why some like this approach. Draft talk is exciting, and prospects are fun. With strong leadership, it’s easy to buy into a long-term outlook and trust the process. It’s hard, though. About as hard as the position the Raptors find themselves in if they want to compete, just different. It means at least a few years of being bad, trusting you’ll develop talent well, banking on a few breaks in timing and ping-pong balls and health, and hoping it all doesn’t just lead you right back to this same spot.