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人工智能时代

你比不上机器好用

我是水木君。

滴滴又有大事了！

就在6月27日，上海突然宣布，滴滴自动无人驾驶在上海率先落地。

消息一出，轰动全国，看来中国汽车行业真的要变天了。

有人半信半疑，认为滴滴是在炒作，无人驾驶想在日常生活中实现普及化是不可能的。

然而，滴滴立马开直播，让你眼见为实，还请来了央视“段子手”朱广权现身“带货”。

看到没，打开APP，签写“自动驾驶知情责任书”，然后扫一下二维码确认身份。

只需三步，即可“一键启程”。

自动无人驾驶，原来就这么简单。

于是，网上炸了，有人欣慰，“人类真是太伟大了，能把一切不可能变成现实！”

有人欣喜，“人工智能越来越普及，智慧生活终于要开始了！”

但还有人在焦虑，“无人驾驶如果普及了，司机该何去何从呢？”

汽车还没被发明出来时，所有人都觉得马车夫不会失业。

可就是短短的几十年，汽车已经成为了我们生活中的必需品。

网约车还没推广时，所有人都以为打车只有出租车这一种方式。

但仅仅过了五六年，用手机打车就已经成了我们的生活习惯。

所以，你还认为自动无人驾驶是遥不可及的事情吗？

而你有没有发现，就像手机的普及让街边的电话亭开始消失一样。

随着人工智能的发展，很多我们曾经熟悉的岗位，也正在慢慢消失，逐步被机器取代。

小时候的的公交车都有售票员，投币、刷卡和扫码支付出现后，你还见过汽车售票员吗？

自从铁道部宣布在全国范围内取消纸质车票，全部采用电子车票后，人工售票窗口是不是越来越少了？

再看看超市里那些无人自助结账平台吧，当大家都习惯使用后，收银员还有必要存在吗？

去银行时，大厅的自助机器早已能满足基本的业务需求，所以这就是为什么柜员在不断减少。

麦肯锡全球研究院在 《人工智能前沿记录：人工智能对全球经济影响的模拟计算》中预估：

到2030年，人工智能将取代 ４亿至８亿个工作岗位。

没错，人工智能时代在带来安逸生活时，也给我们敲响了警钟：

享受安逸很容易，被安逸淘汰也一样容易。

169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了，把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢，没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想，那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you 在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧，管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能！“不可能”的意思是：“不，可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的，不管你的境遇如何，你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难，都要继续前进，因为只有你放弃的那一刻，你才输了。When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later tell family members, sometimes tearing up at the memory, that once they were married, she could get their 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧，见的世面多了，你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧，管它会怎样。baby boy back. Arthur Schieble died in August 1955, after the adoption was finalized. Just after Christmas that year, Joanne and Abdulfattah were married in St. Philip the Apostle Catholic Church in Green Bay. He got his PhD in international politics the next year, and then they had another child, a girl named Mona. After she and Jandali divorced in 1962, Joanne embarked on a dreamy and peripatetic life that her daughter, who grew up to become the acclaimed novelist Mona Simpson, would capture in her book Anywhere but Here. Because Steve’s adoption had been closed, it would be twenty years before they would all find each other. Steve Jobs knew from an early age that he was adopted. “My parents were very open with me about that,” he recalled. He had a vivid memory of sitting on the lawn of his house, when he was six or seven years old, telling the girl who lived across the street. “So does that mean your real parents didn’t want you?” the girl asked. “Lightning bolts went off in my head,” according to Jobs. “I remember running into the house, crying. And my parents said, ‘No, you have to understand.’ They were very serious and looked me straight in the eye. They said, ‘We specifically picked you out.’ Both of my parents said that and repeated it slowly for me. And they put an emphasis on every word in that sentence.” Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. “I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,” said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. “He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.” Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. “Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,” he said. “It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.” Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs “full of broken glass,” and it helps to explain some of his behavior. “He who is abandoned is an abandoner,” she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. “The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,” he said. “That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.” Jobs dismissed this. “There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,” he insisted. “Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.” He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his “adoptive” parents or implied that they were not his “real” parents. “They were my parents 1,000%,” he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: “They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.” Silicon Valley The childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south. There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. “Steve, this is your workbench now,” he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. “I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,” he said, “because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.” Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. “He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.” His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. “I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,” Paul later recalled. “He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力，才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车，只有不断前进，才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心，最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉，并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用，就是让你快乐加倍，痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时，整个宇宙都会来帮忙。echanical things.” “I wasn’t that into fixing cars,” Jobs admitted. “But I was eager to hang out with my dad.” Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. “He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.” Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. “My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he’d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.” Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. “Every weekend, there’d be a junkyard trip. We’d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.” He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. “He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.” This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. “My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.” The Jobses’ house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American “everyman,” Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. “Eichler did a great thing,” Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. “His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.” Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. “I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,” he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. “It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.” Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. “He wasn’t that bright,” Jobs recalled, “but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, ‘I can do that.’ He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.” As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, “What is it you don’t understand about the universe?” Jobs replied, “I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.” He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. “You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.” Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic. His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one exampl What made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne’er-do-wells tended to be engineers. “When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,” Jobs recalled. “But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.” He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. “The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,” he said. “I fell totally in love with it.” Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. “You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,” he recalled. “It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.” In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments. Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. “Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,” Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work. The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors. The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. “So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.” “No, it needs an amplifier,” his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. “It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.” “I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, ‘Well I’ll be a bat out of hell.’” Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. “He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.” Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. “It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.” This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world. Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. “Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.” So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality. School Even before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. “I was kind of bored for the first few years 在这种情况下，俄罗斯和欧洲正兴建一条新的天然气运输管道，这就是北溪-2项目，这个项目全长1224公里，从俄罗斯穿过波罗的海，将天然气运输到德国和其它国家，欧洲很多国家都参与了这条管道项目的建设，毕竟这是欧洲国家的民生工程。一旦这条管道建设完成，可以为欧洲提供每年330亿立方米的天然气，可以满足欧洲对天然气十分之一的需求，这可是非常大的。它是气态行星没有实体表面，由90%的氢和10%的氦（原子数之比, 75/25%的质量比）及微量的甲烷、水、*水氨**和“石头”组成。这与形成整个太阳系的原始的太阳系星云的组成十分相似。木星可能有一个石质的内核，相当于10－15个地球的质量。内核上则是大部分的行星物质集结地，以液态氢的形式存在。液态金属氢由离子化的质子与电子组成（类似于太阳的内部，不过温度低多了）。木星共有67颗木卫。按距离木星中心由近及远的次序为：木卫十六、木卫十四、木卫五、木卫十五、木卫一、木卫二、木卫三、木卫四、木卫十三、木卫六、木卫十、木卫七、木卫十二、木卫十一、木卫八和木卫九。[46] 水星是最接近太阳的行星。水星的半径约为2440公里，在八大行星中是最小的。水星昼夜温差极大，白天摄氏 430 度，晚上约可达零下170 度，是太阳系八大行星中温差最大的一个行星。[47] 水星的外大气层非常稀薄，是由水星表面和太阳风中的原子和离子构成。[48] 科学家确认水星表面含有丰富的碳，认为碳是水星表面呈黑色的原因，水星表面的岩石是由低重量百分比的石墨碳构成。[49] “好奇号”火星探测器在火星表面采集样本 “好奇号”火星探测器在火星表面采集样本 [50] 火星是地球的近邻，是太阳系由内往外数第四颗行星。直径6794km，体积为地球的15%，质量为地球的11%。火星表面是一个荒凉的世界，空气中二氧化碳占了95%。火星大气十分稀薄，密度还不到地球大气的1%，因而根本无法保存热量。这导致火星表面温度极低，很少超过0℃，在夜晚，最低温度则可达到-123℃。火星被称为红色的行星，这是因为它表面布满了氧化物，因而呈现出铁锈红色。其表面的大部分地区都是含有大量的红色氧化物的大沙漠，还有赭色的砾石地和凝固的熔岩流。火星上常常有猛烈的大风，大风扬起沙尘能形成可以覆盖火星全球的特大型沙尘暴。每次沙尘暴可持续数个星期。火星两极的冰冠和火星大气中含有水份。从火星表面获得的探测数据证明，在远古时期八颗行星，直径49532千米。海王星绕太阳运转的轨道半径为45亿千米，公转一周需要165年。海王星的直径和天王星类似，质量比天王星略大一些。海王星和天王星的主要大气成分都是氢和氦，内部结构也极为相近，所以说海王星与天王星是一对孪生兄弟。[55] 海王星有太阳系最强烈的风，测量到的时速高达2100公里。海王星云顶的温度是－218 °C，是太阳系最冷的地区之一。海王星核心的温度约为7000 °C，可以和太阳的表面比较。海王星在1846年9月23日被发现，是唯一利用数学预测而非有计划的观测发现的行星。[56] 冥王星，位于海王星以外的柯伊伯带内侧，是柯伊伯带中已知的最大天体。[57] 直径约为2370±20km，是地球直径的18.5%。[58] 2006年8月24日，国际天文*联学**合会大会24日投票决定，不再将传统九大行星之一的冥王星视为行星，而将其列入“矮行星”。大会通过的决议规定，“行星”指的是围绕太阳运转、自身引力足以克服其刚体力而使天体呈圆球状、能够清除其轨道附近其他物体的天体。在太阳系传统的“九大行星”中，只有水星、金星、地球、火星、木星、土星、天王星和海王星符合这些要求。冥王星由于其轨道与海王星的轨道相交，不符合新的行星定义，因此被自动降级为“矮行星”。[59] 冥王星的表面温度大概在-238到-228℃之间。冥王星的成份由70%岩石和30%冰水混合而成的。地表上光亮的部分可能覆盖着一些固体氮以及少量 卫星拍月球经过地球，可见清晰月球背面 卫星拍月球经过地球，可见清晰月球背面 [60] 的固体甲烷和一氧化碳，冥王星表面的黑暗部分可能是一些基本的有机物质或是由宇宙射线引发的光化学反应。冥王星的大气层主要由氮和少量的一氧化碳及甲烷组成。大气极其稀薄，地面压强只有少量微帕。[61] 地球是离太阳第三颗行星，是我们人类的家乡，尽管地球是太阳系中一颗普通的行星，但它在许多方面都是独一无二的。比如，它是太阳系中唯一一颗面积大部分被水覆盖的行星，也是目前所知唯一一颗有生命存在的星球。质量M=5.9742 ×10^24 公斤，表面温度：t = - 30 ～ +45。[62] 英国科研人员在《天体生物学》杂志上报告说，如果没有小行星撞击等可能剧烈改变环境的事件发生，地球适宜人类居住的时间还剩约17.5亿年，不过人为造成的气候变化可能缩短这一时间。[63] 彗星是由灰尘和冰块组成的太阳系中的一类小天体，绕日运动。[64] 科学家使用探测器对彗星的化学遗留物进行分析，发现其主要成份为氨、甲烷、硫化氢、氰化氢和甲醛。科学家得出结论称，彗星的气味闻起来像是臭鸡蛋、马尿、酒精和苦杏仁的气味综合。[65-66] “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 [67] 在太阳系的周围还包裹着一个庞大的“奥尔特云”。星云内分布着不计其数的冰块、雪团和碎石。其中的某些会受太阳引力影响飞入内太阳系，这学说，在原有的轨道（或称小天体轨道）上又增加了更多的天体运行轨道。这一模式称每颗行星都沿着一个小轨道作圆周运行，而小轨道又沿着该行星的大轨道绕地球作圆周运动。几百年之后，这一模式的漏洞越来越明显。科学家们又在这个模式上增加了许多轨道，行星就这样沿着一道又一道的轨道作圆周运动。哥白尼想用“现代”（16世纪的）技术来改进托勒密的测量结果，以期取消一些小轨道。在长达近20年的时间里，哥白尼不辞辛劳日夜测量行星的位置，但其测量获得的结果仍然与托勒密的天体运行模式没有多少差别。哥白尼想知道在另一个运行着的行星上观察这些行星的运行情况会是什么样的。基于这种设想，哥白尼萌发了一个念头：假如地球在运行中，那么这些行星的运行看上去会是什么情况呢？这一设想在他脑海里变得清晰起来了。一年里，哥白尼在不同的时间、不同的距离从地球上观察行星，每一个行星的情况都不相同，这是他意识到地球不可能位于星星轨道的中心。经过20年的观测，哥白尼发现唯独太阳的周年变化不明显。这意味着地球和太阳的距离始终没有改变。如果地球不是宇宙的中心，那么宇宙的中心就是太阳。的发现才使牛顿有能力确定运动定律和万有引力定律。哥白尼的日心宇宙体系既然是时代的产物，它就不能不受到时代的限制。反对神学的不彻底性，同时表现在哥白尼的某些观点上，他的体系是存在缺陷的。哥白尼所指的宇宙是局限在一个小的范围内的，具体来说，他的宇宙结构就是今天我们所熟知的太阳系，即以太阳为中心的天体系统。宇宙既然有它的中心，就必须有它的边界，哥白尼虽然否定了托勒玫的“九重天”，但他却保留了一层恒星天，尽管他回避了宇宙是否有限这个问题，但实际上他是相信恒星天球是宇宙的“外壳”，他仍然相信天体只能按照所谓完美的圆形轨道运动，所以哥白尼的宇宙体系，仍然包含着不动的中心天体。但是作为近代自然科学的奠基人，哥白尼的历史功绩是伟大的。确认地球不是宇宙的中心，而是行星之一，从而掀起了一场天文学上根本性的革命，是人类探求客观真理道路上的里程碑。哥白尼的伟大成就，不仅铺平了通向近代天文学的道路，而且开创了整个自然界科学向前迈进的新时代。从哥白尼时代起，脱离教会束缚的自然科学和哲学开始获得飞跃的发展。哥白尼的科学成就，是他所处时代的产物，又转过来推动了时代的发展。顺应时代变化 十五、六世纪的欧洲，正是从封建社会向资本主义社会转变的关键时期，在这一二百年间，社会发生了巨大的变化。14世纪以前的欧洲，到处是四分五裂的小城邦。后来，随着城市工商业的兴起，特别是采矿和冶金业的发展，涌现了许多新兴的大城市，小城邦有了联合起来组成国家的趋势。到 15世纪末叶，在许多国家里都出现了基本上是中央集权的君主政体。当时的波兰不仅有像克拉科夫、波兹南这样的大城市，也有许多手工业兴盛的城

⒉

疫情没结束

你还能撑多久

也许不用等到2030年，一场突然爆发的疫情，就能让危机提前到来。

2019年，电影行业预估2020年中国电影的票房将达到千亿；

可谁想到，一场疫情就让电影业5328家公司在上半年注销了。

2019年，迪士尼乐园还人满为患，无数人盼着去拍照打卡；

可谁成想，疫情后“白雪公主”都失业了，而闭园时间次次延长。

2019年，民宿还处在“井喷式”发展，想着野蛮生长；

可谁能想，疫情刚开始，就让数以千计的民宿老板再也望不到春天。

有多少企业因为疫情而“一键暂停”，又有多少公司因为疫情无声倒下。

而一切都只是冰山一角，你可能不知道的是：

星巴克宣布关闭门店400家门店；

而瑞幸就直接停牌退市了；

ZARA关闭全球旗下1200家门店；

而维密英国公司直接宣布破产；

Tiffany无奈关闭全球70%的门店；

而香奈儿直接宣布关闭法国、瑞士和意大利的工厂，停业2周。

看到没，你以为的这些世界知名品牌和商业霸主，在疫情面前一样低下了高贵的头颅。

企业想尽办法自保，在疫情中苦苦挣扎。

而这背后是无数人被抛弃，开始朝不保夕。

是不是觉得在航空公司工作代表着体面？代表着稳定？

但谁成想，航空公司终于撑不住了，纷纷开启裁员计划：

英国易捷航空公司727名飞行员面临被裁员；

澳洲航空集团、宣布裁员6000人；

法国航空公司直接宣布将裁员8000人至10000人；

欧洲飞机制造商空中客车计划全球裁员约1.5万人。

美国飞机制造商波音公司直接宣布停产预计裁员3万人。

不只是航空公司如此，全球各行各业的top级公司都开始了裁员热潮：

全球知名医药企业赛诺菲宣布裁减1680名员工；

世界四大会计师事务所德勤宣布裁员5300名；

石油巨头雪佛龙计划裁员超过6000人；

全球银行业计划裁员规模已超过10万人。

看到没，这些你曾羡慕的或光鲜亮丽，或安稳无忧的工作，

都在用一轮又一轮的数据轰炸告诉你：

时代抛弃你的时候连招呼都不打。

⒊

今天混日子

明天就混不下去

有人在担心无人驾驶的出现，会让无数司机面临失业。

然而，你不知道的是，无人驾驶相关的技术岗位却需求量巨大，还招不到人。

2016 年美国Uber公司花了近 700 亿美元，只为收购一个才成立半年，只有70个员工的公司OTTO。

为何花费天价来收购公司？

一切都只是为了人才。

权威机构Paysa的市场调研报告指出，无人驾驶工程师在美国的平均年薪已经达到23.3万美元。

而在中国，2018 年的猎聘、BOSS 直聘、拉勾等平台上显示：

无人驾驶相关的工程师，其平均月薪高达 1.8万-16万人民币。

没错，真相摆在眼前：

不是岗位变少了，而是你变没用了。

职业没有被淘汰，被淘汰的是你而已。

电商刚兴起时，有多少柜员在忧心，什么时候就饭碗不保。

但同样是当柜员，有人却如李佳琦，顺势搭上电商直播的顺风车，成为一个月能带货23亿的网红主播。

而最新消息是，李佳琦以“特殊人才”落户上海，1.3亿买下豪宅。

看到没，有人还在抱怨被时代淘汰时，有人却在时代的浪潮里乘风破浪。

所以，哪里是时代抛弃了你，明明是自己放弃了自己。

你抱怨工作枯燥，加班太累，想跳槽却又不敢跳时，有人跟你一样。

区别在于，你下班为了疏解郁闷选择喝啤酒，打游戏。

而跟你一样想法的人，默默打开了工具书和网课，给自己充电。

于是，一年后，你还是做着这份无聊的工作，挣着糊口的钱。

而那个选择默默充电的人，顺利跳槽后年薪翻倍。

你开始眼红，悔不当初，为什么十年前不努力点考个更好的大学？

跟你一样懊悔的人也有。

可你懊悔只是多了几次醉酒的机会，第二天醒来，又继续浑浑噩噩讨生活。

而那个跟你一样懊悔的人，开始一边工作一边学习，励志考研上岸。

于是，又一年后，你继续做着这份无趣的工作，混日子。

而那个选择咬牙发力的人，则顺利上岸重启人生。

这就是为什么：

一次疫情就能让你轻而易举的崩溃，一个AI就能让你开始忧心忡忡。

因为你总是在抱怨，却从来没有努力。

你选择混日子，日子就会让你混不下去。

当你的人生，好像轻易就能被打败。

当你，好像随时都可以被淘汰。

你开始红着眼抱怨社会不公，抱怨世事无常，抱怨父母不给力……

抱怨时代把你抛弃了。

可殊不知，你不是被谁抛弃了，你是被自己淘汰了。

有句话叫，水不流则腐，还有句话讲，人不进则退。

没有上进心，就是在自我淘汰。

这个世界很现实，不听抱怨，只信优胜劣汰。

⒋

你不是输在起跑线

而是了输在中场休息

人生就是一场马拉松，决定输赢的永远不是起跑线。

有些人跑着跑着，变成了走走停停。

但还有些人选择生命不止，奋斗不息。

2018年，海底捞成功上市，老板张勇一跃成为新加坡首富，身价1200亿。

一个拖拉机厂的工人一跃成为餐饮业第一人，简直是个奇迹。

但水木君不想跟你聊奇迹，而是想跟你聊海底捞的一个服务员，她叫杨丽娟。

1994年，16岁的杨丽娟辍学后到简阳打工，在一家小餐馆当服务员。

跟她一起当服务员的小姐妹，选择一直待在这家餐馆，直到待不下去了，再换另一家餐馆。

但杨丽娟没有，17岁时，她跳槽到了刚成立不久的海底捞。

为了从原来每月赚120元，到每月赚160元，她一直卖力工作。

跟她同龄的小姑娘，大都满足于这个工资，干几年后攒回家，结婚生子或者做点小生意了。

但杨丽娟没有，她一边做服务员，一边努力跟上海底捞的步伐。

学电脑、考驾照、去新华书店读书……这一切对于小学文凭的她来说十分辛苦。

但她咬牙坚持了下来，因为她深信，一切都会在未来的某一天派上用场。

凭着这份咬牙坚持的努力，和出色的表现，杨丽娟一路从服务员升到领班，再到大堂经理。

20岁时，杨丽娟成为了海底捞的店长。

换成其他人，可能就在这个店长的位子上待下去了，就这样退休有什么不好？

但杨丽娟没有，她从四川跑去西安筹备新店，吃尽了苦头。

因水土不服，新店开张生意惨淡，差点就做不下去。

有多少人碰到这样的困局，选择不折腾回去算了，或者跳槽再去另一家店？

但杨丽娟没有，她积极寻求解决办法，带着员工上街宣传，为了拉客去各单位门口派送豆浆……尝试了各种各样的方法后，生意终于有了起色，她把店救活了。

30岁的杨丽娟，被公司看到了她的能力，开始重用，成为了公司唯一的副总经理。

名声响了，能力有了，无数的猎头公司纷纷找来，抛出年薪百万的待遇想把她挖走。

可能换做你我，就选择跳槽了，毕竟那个年代的百万年薪，实在太难得了。

但杨丽娟没有，她铁了心要在海底捞干事业，并且要把这份事业干到底，干出名堂。

于是，40岁的杨丽娟，跟着海底捞一路奋斗，等到了它敲钟上市的那一天。

而此时的她，身价也随着海底捞水涨船高，身家达到30亿。

谁能想到，一个小学毕业的服务员，能一路奋起直追，成为人生赢家？

而回顾杨丽娟的发家史，你不难发现，她跟所有人一样，有无数次停下脚步的机会。

但不一样的是，她却没有一次选择止步不前，安稳度日。

因为，她深知，一旦停下来，她就有可能被任何人取代。

而只有不停奔跑，才能留在原地。

⒌

你的人生目标是

变成一个油腻的中年人

知乎上有个问题是，“我38才开始考注册会计师，还有用吗？”

底下一堆帮他分析利弊的人，从时间、从精力、从价值……各方面给分析了个遍。

最后都是一句话，看你自己。

而有一个人回答最简单：

如果你现在考注册会计师，40多岁时，你有可能会变成财务总监；

如果不考，等40多岁时，你只会是一个油腻的中年人。

在知乎，这样的问题太多了，而这样“迷茫”的人各个年龄段都有。

“我20岁了，不喜欢现在的专业，现在改专业还来得及吗？”

“我30岁了，不满意现在的工作，现在学PS转行做设计还有戏吗？”

“我40岁了，孩子都快考大学了，现在想创业是不是太晚了？”

你的人生，为什么要别人来告诉你是否还来得及？

你的未来，为什么要追问别人是不是能有价值？

等最后一事无成，被别人取代时，到时候你又该问谁？

那些不会被取代的人，从来不问，只管去做。

就在杨丽娟身家到30亿这一年，83岁的李路被阿里以40万的高额年薪聘请为资深体验师。

这位“李奶奶”虽然已退休多年，但她的人生却从没有过退休。

她退休时，电脑才开始兴起，但她却领先许多年轻人，开始学习起电脑知识。

电脑用得比年轻人溜后，其他方面她也紧跟时代步伐，智能手机和淘宝网购她都能玩得转。

更令人惊讶的是，她还是十几个微信群的KOL，在粉丝中威信颇高。

如此亮眼的履历，难怪83岁也依旧抢手，3000多人的简历中，阿里一眼就看到了她。

而跟李奶奶同一批的62岁的黄其伟“黄爷爷”，同样是活到老学到老。

应聘时，他带着自己制作的PPT亮相，逻辑缜密，制作精美，俨然专业级水准。

“要是没看完，可以扫二维码继续观看。”

此话一出，谁还记得他已62岁的事情。

除了学习PPT制作，黄爷爷还有自己的微信公众号，甚至学会了制作H5手机动画。

而像李奶奶和黄爷爷这样“活到老，学到老”，永不止步的人，还有很多。

没错，一把年纪的人都在努力奔跑，从没有想过放弃。

而你，凭什么停下脚步？

⒍

这世上没有“铁饭碗”

醒醒吧

生活本就是一个修罗场，每天都是无声地厮杀。

有人说，“那些杀不死我的，必将使我更强大。”

但对于那些停下脚步的人来说，杀死他们的是停下来的自己。

再跟你说一件更扎心的事情吧：

最新消息，从2020年起，事业单位分类改革将在年底前全部实现。

也就是说，取消事业编制，编制工变合同工已成定局。

“铁饭碗”彻底消失了。

而你掂量掂量自己，有没有哪一天就被取代的可能？

人生如逆旅，你我都得努力前行。

没本事的时候就闭嘴，跑才是唯一的出路。

人生最大的困境从来不是天灾*祸人**，更不可能是科技进步。

人生最大的困境，是不挣扎。

想要有不被任何人取代的底气，你得先有能取代任何人的能力。

请记住：

你可以被更强大的打败，但永远不要被无能的自己击溃。

点个“在看”，在人生这场淘汰赛中，千万别停下来！

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编辑：Zero