Crude calculations
Why the oil price is spiking again
粗略盘算 为何油价又大涨
In the 1970s Arab states used the "oil weapon" of embargoes to punish Western governments for supporting Israel. On May 3oth the heads of the 27 EU member governments agreed to turn the weapon on themselves, as part of a fresh round of sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. As well as cutting off Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, from the SWIFT Cross-border payment system, the package will also ban purchases of Russian crude oil and refined products, such as diesel, by the end of the year. There would, the EU said, be a "temporary" exemption for oil delivered through pipelines. The price of a barrel of Brent crude leapt above $120 on the news, its highest level since March.
上世纪70年代，阿拉伯国家用禁运这一"石油*器武**"来惩罚支持以色列的西方政府。5月3o日，27个欧盟成员国首脑一致同意把这个*器武**用在自己身上，这是惩罚俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的新一轮制裁的一部分。除了把俄罗斯最大的银行俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行（Sberbank）排除在全球跨境支付系统SWIFT之外，这套制裁方案还包括在年底前禁止欧盟成员国购入俄罗斯原油和柴油等精炼石油产品。但欧盟表示会"暂时"豁免通过管道供应的俄罗斯石油。消息一出，布伦特原油价格升破每桶120美元，是3月以来的最高水平。
In principle, the decision is highly significant. As well as demonstrating unity, and the bloc's willingness to bear economic pain to punish Russia, it cuts one of the few remaining trade ties with the Kremlin. It also imperils one of Russia's most lucrative sources of foreign-currency earnings. The EU is Russia's biggest market for crude, buying about half the country's oil exports.
理论上，这项决定意义重大。除了显示欧盟团结一致，甘愿为惩罚俄罗斯而承受经济痛楚外，它还切断了欧盟与俄罗斯之间仅存为数不多的贸易纽带之一。此决定还危及俄罗斯最大的外汇收入来源之一。欧盟是俄罗斯最大的原油市场，购买了约一半的俄出口石油。
There are reasons, however, to be sceptical that the move will deprive the Kremlin of much foreign currency. For a start, the ban applies only to seaborne oil, transported via tankers. That is the price of unity: excluding oil delivered by pipelines was necessary to find a compromise with Hungary, which is both more sympathetic to Russia than most EU countries and Critically dependent on the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline (a name meaning "friendship" in Russian). Hungary imports about 65% of its crude from Russia.
然而，有理由怀疑此举是否真能让俄罗斯流失很多外汇。首先，此禁令仅适用于用油轮从海上运输的石油。这是为团结所付的代价∶为让匈牙利也能接受方案 ，欧盟必须豁免禁运经管道输送的俄罗斯石油，因为匈牙利不但比大多数欧盟国家更同情俄罗斯，而且也严重依赖苏联时期修建的德鲁日巴输油管道（Druzhba，俄语意为"友谊"）。匈牙利约65%的原油从俄罗斯进口。
Seaborne oil makes up a similar share of Europe's imports from Russia. But the ban is likely to have a limited impact on the oil market. Many tankers are already subject to "self-sanctioning" in parts of the West. Dockworkers have refused to unload ships carrying Russian cargoes and oil majors have been worried about the hit to their reputations from accepting shipments. Western financiers are stepping back from writing insurance contracts. Insurers based in Russia's allies could partly replace them, but have shallower pockets.
海运石油在欧洲进口的俄石油中差不多也是这个占比。但该禁令对石油市场的冲击很可能是有限的。许多油轮在西方部分地区已遭遇"自发性制裁"。码头工人拒绝为装载俄石油的船只卸货，石油巨头们也担心接收俄石油会有损声誉。西方金融机构也不敢为之承保 ，虽然俄罗斯盟国的保险公司可以取代一部分，但它们的资金实力不如前者。
A big question is whether Russian seaborne crude, once placed under sanctions, will go unsold. So far Russia's oil exports have risen even as the country has come under sanctions. According to analysts at JPMorgan Chase, a bank, much of the increase has gone to India, which has not issued sanctions of its own.
一大疑问是，新一轮制裁实施后，俄罗斯的海运原油会否滞销。迄今为止，在俄罗斯受到制裁之时，它的石油出口却在增长。摩根大通的分析师表示，大部分的增长流向了未对俄实施制裁的印度。
Another question is whether Europe does eventually ban piped Russian oil, which is harder to redirect to other countries. Poland and Germany have said they will cease importing via the Druzhba pipeline. Yet it is hard to imagine Hungary's dropping its opposition to a wider ban. Viktor Orban, the country's populist prime minister, has demonstrated his willingness to block EU decisions before. Thanks to a hefty discount on Russian crude—the Urals benchmark is trading significantly below Brent—MOL, a Hungarian oil group, reports "skyrocketing" margins.
另一个问题是，欧洲最终是否会对经管道输送的俄石油实施禁运。要把这部分石油转运到其他国家的难度更大。波兰和德国已表示将停止通过德鲁日巴管道进口俄石油。但很难想象匈牙利会改变立场赞成扩*禁大**令。匈牙利的民粹总理欧尔班之前已表现出阻止欧盟决定的意愿。由于俄罗斯原油有高额折扣 （乌拉尔原油价格明显低于布伦特原油） ，匈牙利石油集团MOL录得"—飞冲天"的利润率。
Partial though the embargo may be, such is the tightness of the oil market that prices still surged. Demand for fuel is strong as the pandemic subsides and consumers start driving and flying again, and as governments try to shield voters from the impact of higher energy costs. The prices of industrial metals, including iron ore and copper, have rallied, too.
虽然禁运可能只是局部的，但因石油市场吃紧的程度仍导致油价飙升。随着疫情消退，消费者开始重新驾车和乘飞机出行，政府也力求让选民免受能源成本上升的冲击，目前对燃料的需求非常强劲。包括铁矿石和铜在内的工业金属价格也重振旗鼓。
Meanwhile, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC) and its allies, which include Russia, have shown little sign of increasing production just yet. The group was due to meet on June 2nd, as we went to press, and was not expected to depart from its plan to gradually increase supply to levels seen before the pandemic (although prices dipped on reports that it was mulling a plan to exclude Russia from its production targets, allowing Saudi Arabia and others to pump more to make up for any lost output).
与此同时，欧佩克及其盟友（包括俄罗斯）眼下还没有显示出要增产的迹象。该组织订于6月2日（本刊付印之时）举行会议，预计不会偏离它们原本的计划，即逐步提升产量至疫情前水平（但有报道称，欧佩克正在酝酿新计划，要将俄罗斯排除在生产目标之外，允许沙特阿拉伯和其他国家增加产量以弥补不足。消息传出后油价一度下滑）。
Tight supply and robust demand together translate into higher prices for consumers at the pump. To make matters worse, a shortage of refinery capacity in America has raised prices for petrol and diesel even further than the cost of crude. The surging dollar adds to costs for Europe and emerging markets, notes Francisco Blanch of Bank of America. None of this is welcome news in an already inflationary environment. According to figures published on May 31ist inflation in the euro area rose to 8.1% in the year to May, higher than economists had expected.
供应紧张加上需求强劲，结果就是消费者在加油站看到价格上涨。更糟糕的是，美国的炼油厂产能不足，导致汽油和柴油价格的升幅甚至高于原油成本的涨幅。美国银行的弗朗西斯科·布兰奇 （Francisco Blanch） 指出，美元升值增加了欧洲和新兴市场的成本。在通胀已经高企的大环境下。所有这些都不是好消息。据5月31日公布的数字，截至5月的一年里，欧元区的通胀已上升至8.1%，高于经济学家预期。
The Arab embargoes of the 197os caused short-term pain for the West, but also spurred a drive for fuel efficiency that ultimately reduced its reliance on oil. European governments today may find themselves hoping that the short-term pain for consumers similarly gives way to the long-term gain of energy security.
上世纪7o年代的阿拉伯禁运给西方国家带来了短痛，但也促使燃油效率提升，最终减轻了对石油的依赖。今天的欧洲各国政府也许只能期盼消费者承受的短痛最后也能换来能源安全这一长期好处。