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1.内容提要
本期我们将继续学习《考虑消费者预期后悔行为的产品定价模型》，在前面几期中，我们学习了承诺定价策略下未考虑预期后悔和不考虑预期后悔下的定价决策情况，本期将进一步学习在承诺定价策略下考虑预期后悔所带来的价值。
In this issue, we will continue to study A Product Pricing Model Considering Consumers' Expected Regret Behavior . In previous issues, we have studied the case of pricing decisions under a commitment pricing strategy without considering expected regret and without considering expected hindsight, and in this issue we will further study the value of considering expected regret under a commitment pricing strategy.
本期内容将从思维导图、精读内容和知识补充三部分展开。
In this issue, we will start from three parts: mind map, intensive reading content and knowledge supplement.
2.思维导图
3.精读内容
与动态定价策略下的考虑预期后悔带来的价值研究方法一致，将考虑预期后悔下的企业利润和不考虑预期后悔下的企业利润做差，差值表示考虑预期后悔能够给企业带来的价值，这个价值即可能为正，增加价值，表示考虑预期后悔是有利的；也可能为负，减少价值，表示考虑预期后悔会对企业产生负影响；若为零，那说明考虑预期后悔与不考虑预期后悔是一样，没有影响。
In line with the research method of the value brought by considering expected regret under dynamic pricing strategy, the difference between the profit of the firm under considering expected regret and the profit of the firm under not considering expected regret is made, and the difference indicates the value that considering expected regret can bring to the firm, and this value that may be positive, increasing the value, indicating that considering expected regret is beneficial; or it may be negative, decreasing the value, indicating that considering expected regret will have a negative impact on the firm; if it is zero, then it means that considering expected regret and not considering expected regret are the same and have no impact.
从命题3可以看出，在承诺定价策略下，企业考虑预期后悔的价值与消费者预期后悔的具体类型有关。
①当消费者对缺货后悔更敏感时，考虑消费者的预期后悔对企业的利润是有利的。这是因为消费者对于缺货的担忧，使得部分需求提前释放，企业在全价期的销量增加，从而获得更多的利益；在清算期降价促销，通过“薄利多销”的策略也可能吸引消费者购买。故此，在消费者更在乎缺货时，考虑消费者的预期后悔对企业是有利的。
②当消费者对高价后悔更敏感但敏感度较低时，考虑消费者的预期后悔行为对企业无影响。因为在承诺定价下，消费者已经知道两个阶段的产品销售价格，直接消除了消费者的高价后悔心理。
从命题三中，文章得出在承诺定价策略下，企业需结合消费者的预期后悔类型做出定价决策，并引导消费者由高价后悔敏感型转向缺货后悔敏感型，增强消费者的缺货后悔心理。
It is clear from Proposition 3 that the value of a firm's consideration of expected regret under a commitment pricing strategy is related to the specific type of consumer expected regret.
(1) When consumers are more sensitive to out-of-stock regret, it is beneficial to the firm's profits to consider consumers' expected regret. This is because consumers' concern about out-of-stock makes part of the demand released earlier, and the company's sales increase in the full-price period, thus gaining more benefits; in the liquidation period, the price reduction promotion, through the "thin profit and more sales" strategy may also attract consumers to buy. Therefore, it is advantageous for the company to consider consumers' expected regret when they are more concerned about the lack of goods.
② When consumers are more sensitive to high price regret but less sensitive, considering consumers' expected regret behavior has no effect on the firm. This is because under commitment pricing, consumers already know the price at which the product will be sold in both stages, directly eliminating the consumer's high price regret.
From Proposition 3, the article concludes that under the commitment pricing strategy, firms need to make pricing decisions in conjunction with consumers' expected regret type and guide consumers from high price regret-sensitive to out-of-stock regret-sensitive to enhance consumers' out-of-stock regret psychology.
从推论7中，我们可以看出承诺定价策略下策略型消费者比例对企业考虑预期后悔价值的影响。
①当消费者对缺货后悔更敏感时，策略型消费者的增加会提高企业考虑缺货后悔的价值。因为缺货后悔会降低消费者的策略性等待，使得消费者选择在全价期间购买，这样策略型消费者数量的增加，就会有更多的消费者在全价期间购买产品，使得企业在全价期的利润增加。
②消费者对高价后悔更敏感但敏感度较低时，策略型消费者比例与企业考虑高价后悔的价值无关联。因为此时无论是否考虑消费者的高价后悔行为，企业会选择采取两阶段同价的统一定价策略销售，这样所有消费者都会选择在全价期间购买，所以此时考虑预期后悔的价值为零。
From Corollary 7, we can see the effect of the proportion of strategic consumers on the value of firms' consideration of expected regret under the commitment pricing strategy.
(1) When consumers are more sensitive to out-of-stock regret, an increase in strategic consumers raises the value of firms considering out-of-stock regret. This is because out-of-stock regret reduces consumers' strategic waiting and makes them choose to buy during the full price period, so that an increase in the number of strategic consumers will result in more consumers buying the product during the full price period, making the firm's profit increase during the full price period.
② When consumers are more sensitive to high price regret but less sensitive, the proportion of strategic consumers is not associated with the value of firms considering high price regret. This is because at this time, regardless of whether consumers' high-price regret is considered, the firm will choose to adopt a uniform pricing strategy of selling at the same price in both phases, so that all consumers will choose to buy during the full price period, so the value of considering expected regret at this time is zero.
4.知识补充
文章中在考虑预期后悔带来的价值的时候，采用的是常见的做差法，即将两个结果进行相减，如x1-x2，如果结果大于零，就说明x1大于x2；如果结果小于零，就说明x1小于x2；结果为零，就说明两者相等。
除此之外，还可以通过比值法进行大小关系的判断，但此方法需要注意分母不能为零，如x1/x2，其中x2不等于零，若比值大于1，则说明x1大于x2；若比值等于1，则两者相等；若比值小于1，说明x1小于x2。
In the article, when considering the value brought by expected regret, the common method of making a difference is used, that is, the two results are subtracted, such as x1-x2, if the result is greater than zero, it means that x1 is greater than x2; if the result is less than zero, it means that x1 is less than x2; if the result is zero, it means that they are equal.
In addition, the ratio method can also be used to determine the size of the relationship, but this method requires attention to the denominator can not be zero, such as x1/x2, where x2 is not equal to zero, if the ratio is greater than 1, then x1 is greater than x2; if the ratio is equal to 1, then they are equal; if the ratio is less than 1, then x1 is less than x2.
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参考资料：谷歌翻译、百度百科；
参考文献：
[1] 叶新兰，李金凤，官振中．考虑消费者预期后悔行为的产品定价模型 [J/OL]．系统管理学报.
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