全球石油产业危机 (全球储油罐最新消息)

相信之前负油价的新闻,已经让不少投资者“见证了历史”。低油价让原油买家欣喜若狂,导致囤积原油的油罐成了抢手货,同时也让全球许多油气企业苦不堪言。

生产商、炼油商和贸易商争相抢购油轮以及储存原油,也使海上储油出现了数倍的增长。

新冠疫情是负油价的决定性因素之一:欧美各国受疫情影响相继封城,石油供大于求,上海石油天然气交易中心油品事业部总监张龙星告诉CGTN记者,“从现货运作角度来说,升贴水、运费成本及仓储物流能力都是关系石油现货贸易盈亏的核心问题。在供大于求的情况下,远离消费市场的现货离岸价格(FOB Price)往往被压制较为厉害,一方面是石油基准价格更低,另一方面是买家要贴运费。”

Royal Vopak独立石油存储公司首席财务官Gerard Paulides 4月21日表示,新冠疫情下石油供大于求,交易商储存原油和精炼燃料的空间已经被占满。

全球油罐遭争抢,油运业的“高光时刻”还能持续多久?

Negative oil prices, a "devastating" milestone that no oil company wanted to achieve. But low oil prices have delighted oil buyers, leading to an increase in demand, as oil companies feel the pinch. With producers, refiners, and traders stockpiling crude oil, there has been a multi-fold increase in offshore storage.

The COVID-19 epidemic is one of the key factors resulting in negative oil prices. Oil supply has exceeded the demand amid strict lockdowns in countries across Europe, and the United States.

Zhang Longxing, Petroleum Business Division Director from Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange, told CGTN: “From the point of spot operation, price premium, costs of operation such as storage and logistics capacity are the core issues related to the oil profit and loss," adding "When oil supply exceeds demand, the (FOB price) tends to be held down a lot, one reason is that its base price is low, another is extra freight charge.”

Gerard Paulides, Vopak’s Chief Financial Officer, recently said that the pandemic has posed challenges, such as causing potential delays to projects, predicting that a long-term recession would also be coming.

全球油罐遭争抢,油运业的“高光时刻”还能持续多久?

北京时间4月13日凌晨,沙特主持召开的欧佩克+紧急视频会议结束,与会各国最终达成减产协议。

但是,在石油需求因新冠疫情锐减之际,这样的减产是否足以支撑价格?

国投安信期货研究员郑若金告诉CGTN记者,“以目前OPEC+的减产规模是无法完全抵消需求下降幅度的,未来全球原油市场要想再度平衡,需要供需两方面共同发力,一方面是减产规模扩大,除此以外,市场还需要低油价带来更大规模的主动减产,比如北美地区;另一方面,市场更加期待的还是疫情结束之后需求快速修复。”

美国能源信息署周三公布数据显示,截至4月17日的一周,美国原油库存增加了1500万桶,虽然较前期数据有所回落,但仍远超历史平均水平。

美国俄克拉荷马州的库欣市一直以来都是美国重要的原油中转重镇,也是WTI原油期货的定价中心,储存罐里存放的原油量也是原油交易的一大风向标。

追踪数据显示,在4月17日,这里的原油存储空间负荷就已经高达77%。高盛认为,到5月的第一个星期,这些油罐就将完全存满。

OPEC组织的快速停产会给油企带来巨大的损失。过去一段时间,美国主要原油生产州也一直在进行相关讨论,以减少油企损失,帮助达成减产,但阻碍仍然存在。

全球油罐遭争抢,油运业的“高光时刻”还能持续多久?

OPEC and its allies agreed to a historic 10-million-barrel per day production cut after it held an emergency video meeting on April 13.

But will this reduction prove to be enough to support prices at a time when oil demand is collapsing due to a global health emergency?

The U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed that U.S. crude inventories rose by 15 million barrels last week (statistics calculated by April 17) - still well above the historical average.

One of the most immediate factors attributing to the recent collapse in oil prices are inventories, in other words - the shortage of oil storing space.

Cushing, Oklahoma, has long been an important U.S. crude oil transit hub and the pricing center for WTI crude futures.

Tracking data shows that by April 17, the tanks were 77 percent stocked, and Goldman Sachs thinks they will be fully stocked by the first week of May.

OPEC's curb on oil production would be costly for oil companies. In the past, major U.S. oil producers have been in discussions to reduce their losses and help reach production cuts, but obstacles still remain.

全球油罐遭争抢,油运业的“高光时刻”还能持续多久?

全球油罐遭争抢 油运业迎“高光时刻”

低油价席卷全球产业链的各个角落的同时,一些原油买家都希望趁此机会增加石油的战略和商业储备,这种狂热使得全球原油储罐也瞬间被预订一空,直接拉升原油运价。

全球航运公司Clarksons Platou分析师Frode Morkedal在近期一份研究报告中披露,储存在海上的石油已增至近2.5亿桶,全球海上储油量正以前所未有的速度激增。据世界石油网报道,交易商派遣油轮远征寻找最佳储存地点。原计划从印度发往欧洲的柴油类油轮已改变航线,驶向储存空间更富裕的纽约。比利时油轮业内人士称,随着现货市场走向“平流层”,船队中越来越多的船只会被用作储存。

全球油罐遭争抢,油运业的“高光时刻”还能持续多久?

As low oil prices disrupt the global oil supply chain, some oil buyers are looking to build strategic and commercial stockpiles. Such massive demand can instantly empty oil tanks, and directly pull up the oil freight rate.

The pressure on storage is also kicking off some peculiar shipping movements as traders send tankers to find additional spaces to store supplies.

The amount of oil stored at sea in oil tankers has also increased to almost 250 million barrels and global floating storage is now accelerating at an unprecedented pace, Clarksons Platou analyst Frode Morkedal said in a research note released on Tuesday.

全球油罐遭争抢,油运业的“高光时刻”还能持续多久?

未来油运业能否持续上涨?

尽管油轮运输逆势进入“高光时刻”,但国内外蔓延的新冠肺炎疫情对油市的需求打击不容小觑。

郑若金分析师表示,“高运价最根本的原因还是由于油轮运力紧张,全球原油浮仓库存不断攀升意味着更多的油轮被用来囤积过剩的原油。高运价持续的时间将取决于全球原油市场再平衡需要的时间。”

Despite tanker traffic bucking the trend into the "highlight moment," the impact of COVID-19 towards the oil market should not be underestimated.

Especially after the OPEC’s deal, the demand of global refinery is moving downwards, and oil storage tanks are also filling up faster. The world faces the risk of running out of oil storage capacity within months while the recovery process looks long and slow.