美国股市近期表现弹性十足，无论联邦储备系统是否提高或降低利率，股市都在上涨。这导致了人们观察到“利率上升时股票上涨，利率下降时股票也上涨”的现象。然而，更仔细的观察揭示了这看似不间断的上升趋势并不像表面看起来那么简单。相反，这是由三个关键的宏观经济支柱之间的接力赛结果，后续的走向将决定股市未来的走势。
**美国股市牛市行情的三大宏观经济支柱：**
* **杠杆：** 政府杠杆保护了家庭和企业资产负债表，刺激了消费和投资，代表了美国股市牛市行情的第一支柱。
* **技术趋势：** 生成式人工智能的突破使美国股市摆脱了传统经济周期的限制，在2023年后成为其力量的主要推动因素。
* **全球资本再平衡：** 美国推动重新工业化、供应链重组和全球资本再平衡在比较优势下为美国提供了直接或间接的融资支持。
**可能的未来发展趋势：**
* **杠杆：** 在选举后的新刺激计划下政府杠杆和利率下调后房地产中的家庭杠杆都有很高的概率发生，但它们可能需要一些时间才能启动，其规模还有待观察。这一路径类似于2019年进行了三次预防性降息后房地产周期的小循环重启。
* **技术趋势：** 焦点可能放在4月中旬的第一季度业绩季上，如果能够开启长期行业趋势，那么它将类似于1995年降息后的路径。
* **中国的增长复苏决定全球资本再平衡的程度：** 全球资本再平衡的程度将取决于中国的增长复苏情况。
**历史经验：**
回顾历史发现，2019年和1995年的经济数据和资产表现有许多相似之处，两者都是软着陆和预防性降息。如果我们做一个类比，在今年下半年预计开始降息之前和之后的时期，我们可能会看到经济复苏、房地产修复和通货膨胀反弹。然而，前者并非由技术驱动，更多地是在利率下调后房地产市场小的经济复苏周期重启。而后者，受技术趋势驱动，美国股市表现更为强劲，尤其是纳斯达克。
重要的是要注意，这些只是可能的未来发展趋势，美国股市的实际走向将取决于各种因素，包括联邦储备政策、经济增长、企业盈利和地缘政治事件。投资者在做出任何投资决策之前，应仔细考虑自己的投资目标和风险承受能力。
The US stock market has shown resilience in recent times, rising regardless of whether the Fed raises or lowers interest rates. This has led to the observation that "stocks go up when rates go up and when rates go down." However, a closer look reveals that this seemingly uninterrupted upward trend is not as simple as it appears. Instead, it is the result of a relay race between three key macroeconomic pillars, whose subsequent direction will be crucial in determining the future course of the stock market.
The Three Macroeconomic Pillars of the US Stock Market Bull Run:
· Leverage: Government leverage protects household and corporate balance sheets, stimulates consumption and investment, and represents the first pillar of the US stock market bull run.
· Technological Trends: Breakthroughs in generative AI have freed the US stock market from the constraints of the traditional economic cycle, becoming the main driver of its strength after 2023.
· Global Capital Rebalancing: The US push for re-industrialization, supply chain restructuring, and global capital rebalancing under comparative advantages has directly or indirectly provided financing support for the US.
Possible Future Developments:
· Leverage: Both government leverage under a new stimulus package after the election and household leverage in real estate following rate cuts have a high probability of occurring, but it may take some time for them to start and their magnitude remains to be seen. This path is similar to the small cycle of the real estate cycle重启 after three preventive rate cuts in 2019.
· Technological Trends: Short-term focus on the Q1 earnings season in mid-April, if the long-term industry trend can be opened up, it will be similar to the path after the rate cuts in 1995.
· China's Growth Recovery Determines the Extent of Global Capital Rebalancing: The extent of global capital rebalancing will depend on China's growth recovery.
Historical Experience:
A review of history reveals that the economic data and asset performance in 2019 and 1995 have many similarities, both being soft landings and preventive rate cuts. If we draw an analogy, in the period before and after the expected start of rate cuts in the second half of this year, we may see an economic recovery, real estate repair and a rebound in inflation. However, the former was not driven by technology and was more of a small economic recovery cycle of the real estate market重启 after the rate cuts. The latter, driven by technological trends, has seen a stronger performance in the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq.
It is important to note that these are just possible future developments and that the actual direction of the US stock market will depend on a variety of factors, including the Fed's monetary policy, economic growth, corporate earnings, and geopolitical events. Investors should carefully consider their own investment goals and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.