Russia’s Trade and Investment Role in the Global Economy
2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，以及随后美国和国际制裁的扩大，提高了美国国会对了解俄罗斯经济的兴趣，包括其贸易和投资流的组成、方向和价值。美国国会议员可能有兴趣仔细审查这些流动，以更好地了解美国及其盟友可能不得不迫使俄罗斯改变路线的任何潜在经济杠杆，并帮助为美国潜在的额外政策回应提供信息。
The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation (Russia) in February 2022—and the expansion of U.S. and international sanctions that followed—has heightened congressional interest in understanding Russia’s economy, including the composition, direction, and value of its trade and investment flows. Members of Congress may have an interest in scrutinizing these flows to better understand any potential economic leverage that the United States and allies may have to compel Russia to change course, and to help inform potential additional U.S. policy responses.
Russia’s Economy 俄罗斯的经济
俄罗斯在全球经济中的重要性与其作为主要能源和粮食生产国和出口国的作用有关。在大宗商品市场之外，俄罗斯长期以来一直是一个相对较小的经济参与者，尽管其土地面积和人口众多。俄罗斯经济是世界第11大经济体，2021年占世界总产出的1.8%，与全球价值链的融合仍然较弱（图1）。尽管俄罗斯几十年来一直表示希望实现经济多元化，但石油和天然气在俄罗斯商品（ 货品 ）出口中占主导地位，并在政府预算收入中占很大份额。有关更多详细信息，请参阅CRS报告R46518，俄罗斯：国内政治和经济。
Russia’s significance in the global economy is tied to its role as a major energy and grain producer and exporter. Outside commodity markets, Russia has long been a relatively minor economic actor, despite its large land mass and population. Its economy, the 11th largest in the world, accounted for 1.8% of the world’s total output in 2021 and remains weakly integrated into global value chains (GVCs) (Figure 1). Despite Russia’s stated desire to diversify its economy for decades, oil and gas dominate Russia’s goods (merchandise) exports and account for a large share of the government’s budget revenue. For more detail, see CRS Report R46518, Russia: Domestic Politics and Economy.
Russia’s Trade with the World
俄罗斯与世界的贸易
贸易对俄罗斯经济相对重要：近年来，俄罗斯商品贸易（出口加进口）与GDP的比例平均约为40%，而美国为20%。2021年，俄罗斯在世界商品出口国中排名第13位，在进口国中排名第22位。根据俄罗斯官方消息来源，2021年其商品出口总额为4920亿美元，比2020年增长46%（未经通胀调整）（图2）。包括石油和天然气在内的矿产几乎占这些出口的45%。2021年，商品进口额增长27%，达到2940亿美元。机械和机械设备是最大的进口类别，几乎占俄罗斯商品进口的三分之一。货物出口的接受者在地理上高度集中。2021年，主要出口目的地是欧盟，其次是中国和土耳其。近年来，中国和其他亚洲经济体在俄罗斯石油和天然气出口中所占份额越来越大。制裁，加上北溪2号管道项目的停止以及围绕地区能源系统状况的不确定性，可能会加速这一趋势。欧盟是2021年俄罗斯商品进口的最大来源国，其次是中国和美国。美国在俄罗斯2021年商品出口和进口中的份额分别为4%和6%。
Trade is relatively important to the Russian economy: the ratio of Russia’s goods trade (exports plus imports) to GDP has averaged about 40% in recent years, compared to 20% for the United States. In 2021, Russia ranked 13 th among world goods exporters and 22 nd among importers. According to Russian official sources, its goods exports totaled $492 billion in 2021, up 46% from 2020 (not adjusting for inflation) (Figure 2). Minerals, including oil and gas, accounted for almost 45% of these exports. Goods imports increased 27% to $294 billion in 2021. Machinery and mechanical appliances was the top import category, accounting for almost a third of Russia’s goods imports. Recipients of goods exports were highly concentrated geographically. In 2021, top export destinations were the European Union (EU), followed by China and Turkey. In recent years, China and other Asian economies have accounted for a growing share of Russia’s oil and gas exports. Sanctions, combined with the halting of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project and uncertainties surrounding the status of regional transmission systems, could accelerate this trend. The EU was the largest source of Russia’s goods imports in 2021, followed by China and the United States. The U.S. share of Russia’s 2021 goods exports and imports stood at 4% and 6%, respectively.
在服务贸易方面，2020年，俄罗斯在世界出口国中排名第26位，在进口国中排名第19位，这是有数据可查的最近一年。它是一个服务净进口国，出口价值490亿美元的服务，进口价值760亿美元。
参与贸易协定。经过近20年的加入条件谈判，俄罗斯于2012年加入了世界贸易组织。美国贸易代表一直对俄罗斯遵守其在世贸组织的承诺表示担忧。美国贸易代表办公室在其最近一次对俄罗斯的审查中（根据法规规定）指出，该国继续无视其在世贸组织的承诺，并维持扭曲贸易的限制性贸易措施。
In services trade, Russia ranked 26 th among world exporters and 19 th among importers in 2020, the most recent year for which there is data. It was a net services importer, exporting $49 billion worth of services and importing $76 billion.
Participation in Trade Agreements. Russia joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2012, after nearly two decades of negotiations on the terms of its accession. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has consistently raised concerns about Russia’s compliance with its WTO commitments. In its most recent review on Russia (as mandated by statute), the USTR noted that the country continues to disregard its WTO commitments and maintains restrictive trade measures that distort trade.
俄罗斯是欧亚经济联盟（EAEU）的创始成员国，也是与越南、伊朗、新加坡和塞尔维亚的欧亚经济联盟贸易协议的缔约国。2018年，欧亚经济联盟与中国签署了贸易合作协议，并正在与印度、以色列和埃及进行贸易谈判。俄罗斯也是欧亚经济联盟之前的几项协议的缔约国。
由于美国没有提供更多优惠条件的双边贸易协议，世贸组织最惠国条款管辖美俄贸易，直到2022年4月P.L.117-110暂停美国与俄罗斯的正常贸易关系。（其他一些国家也取消了俄罗斯的最惠国待遇。）因此，美国从俄罗斯进口的产品不符合最惠国条件，可能面临更高的美国关税。美国国会和拜登总统还禁止美国从俄罗斯进口某些产品，如石油。
Russia is a founding member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and is party to EAEU trade agreements with Vietnam, Iran, Singapore, and Serbia. In 2018, the EAEU signed a trade cooperation agreement with China, and it is in trade negotiations with India, Israel, and Egypt. Russia is also a party to several agreements that predate the EAEU.
As the United States does not have a bilateral trade deal granting more preferential terms, WTO most-favorednation (MFN) terms governed U.S.-Russia trade until P.L. 117-110 suspended U.S. normal trade relations with Russia in April 2022. (Some other countries have also revoked Russia’s MFN status.) As a result, U.S. imports from Russia are ineligible for MFN treatment and might face higher U.S. tariff rates. Congress and President Biden have also banned certain U.S. imports from Russia, such as oil.
Supply Chains. 供应链。
俄罗斯融入全球价值链的程度相对较低，部分原因是其经济结构和商业环境。然而，世界各地的一些行业依赖俄罗斯的投入，而俄罗斯的替代供应来源有限。俄罗斯是某些谷物和关键矿物的最大生产国和出口国之一。例如，该国是氖（半导体）、钯（催化转化器）和钛（飞机）的主要出口国。短缺和工厂停工，加上制裁导致的港口关闭和欧亚过境路线受限，影响了生产，导致市场波动和价格上涨，并加剧了本已紧张的供应链中的现有问题。
Russia is relatively poorly integrated into GVCs, partly due to its economic structure and business environment. Nevertheless, some industries around the world are dependent on Russian inputs for which there are limited alternative sources of supply. Russia is one of the largest producers and exporters of certain grains and critical minerals. For example, the country is a leading exporter of neon (for semiconductors), palladium (catalytic converters), and titanium (aircraft). Shortages and plant stoppages, combined with port closures and restricted Europe-Asia transit routes due to sanctions, have affected production, caused market volatility and higher prices, and exacerbated existing issues in already stressed supply chains.
International Investment 国际投资
近年来，对俄罗斯的外国直接投资有所减少，主要是由于美国和欧盟的制裁以及俄罗斯的反制措施带来了更大的不确定性。尽管俄罗斯与包括英国和许多欧盟成员国在内的约60个经济体签订了有效的双边投资条约，但俄罗斯市场对外国直接投资的吸引力并不强。尽管拥有丰富的自然资源、受过教育的劳动力和庞大的消费者基础，但许多因素导致了商业环境的不太有利，包括国家在经济中的作用、腐败、缺乏监管透明度和产权保护，以及地区不稳定。
In recent years, foreign direct investment (FDI) into Russia has decreased, mainly due to greater uncertainties derived from U.S. and EU sanctions and Russia’s countermeasures. While Russia has bilateral investment treaties (BITs) in force with about 60 economies, including the UK and many EU members, the Russian market has not been a strong attraction for FDI. Despite abundant natural resources, an educated labor force, and large consumer base, a number of factors have contributed to a less-than-favorable business environment, including the role of the state in the economy, corruption, lack of regulatory transparency and property rights protection, and regional instability.
由于2019冠状病毒病（新冠肺炎）大流行，全球外国直接投资流量大幅下降，2020年流入俄罗斯的外国直接投资暴跌。2021年，俄罗斯的外国直接投资存量为5220亿美元，约占世界总量的1%。其对外直接投资存量达3990亿美元，相当于全球总量的1%。近年来，进入俄罗斯的外国直接投资主要流入燃料和能源材料的采矿和开采。值得注意的是，塞浦路斯是俄罗斯投资的主要目的地和来源地，据报道部分原因是“往返”（例如，伪装成外国投资的国内投资）。
In line with the strong decline in global FDI flows due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, FDI into Russia plummeted in 2020. Russia’s inward FDI stock stood at $522 billion in 2021, which represented about 1% of the world’s total. Its outward FDI stock amounted to $399 billion, equivalent to 1% of the global total. In recent years, FDI into Russia has flowed mainly into mining and quarrying of fuel and energy materials. Notably, Cyprus is both the top destination and source of Russian investment, reportedly in part due to “round-tripping” (e.g., domestic investment disguised as foreign investment).
U.S.-Russia Trade and Investment Ties
美俄贸易和投资关系
俄罗斯历来不是美国的主要整体经济伙伴。即使在2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚并支持顿巴斯分离主义者后，美俄经济关系受到限制之前，双方传统上都没有进行过大量的双边贸易和投资。与俄罗斯与欧盟和中国等其他伙伴的关系相比，这种缺乏接触的情况尤为明显。尽管总体上缺乏参与，但几家美国大公司参与了与俄罗斯的项目，产品或公司层面的贸易关系可能非常重要。
Russia has historically not been a major overall economic partner of the United States. Even before U.S.-Russia economic ties were constrained in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its support for Donbas separatists, neither side had traditionally engaged in significant levels of bilateral trade and investment. This lack of engagement is pronounced when compared to Russia’s ties with other partners, such as the EU and China. Despite overall lack of engagement, several large U.S. companies had been involved in projects with Russia, and trade ties at the product or firm level can be significant.
2021年，俄罗斯是美国第23大商品贸易伙伴。它占美国货物贸易的0.8%，而美国占俄罗斯货物贸易的4.4%。欧盟作为一个集团，是俄罗斯（和美国）最大的贸易伙伴。2021年，美国对俄罗斯的最大出口包括民用飞机、发动机和通信卫星，而美国从俄罗斯的最大进口是重燃料、石油和钯（图3）。俄罗斯供应了约8%（即2.45亿桶）的美国进口原油及相关产品。在服务业，俄罗斯是2021年美国第33大贸易伙伴，占美国服务贸易的0.4%。
Russia was the United States’ 23rd -largest goods trading partner by country in 2021. It comprised 0.8% of U.S. goods trade, while the United States accounted for 4.4% of Russia’s goods trade. The EU, as a bloc, was Russia’s (and the United States’) largest trading partner. In 2021, top U.S. exports to Russia included civilian aircraft and engines and communication satellites, while the top U.S. imports from Russia were heavy fuel and petroleum oils and palladium (Figure 3). Russia supplied about 8% (or 245 million barrels) of U.S. imports of crude oil and related products. In services, Russia was the 33 rd -largest U.S. trading partner in 2021, accounting for 0.4% of U.S. services trade.
2021年，美国在俄罗斯的外国直接投资存量为123亿美元（占美国对外直接投资存量的0.2%），俄罗斯在美国的外国直接外资存量为49亿美元（相当于美国对外直接外资存量的0.1%）。美国在俄罗斯的外国直接投资的主要行业是制造业和批发贸易，2020年，美国在那里的分支机构活动支持了20万6000多名工人。
In 2021, U.S. FDI stock in Russia was $12.3 billion (0.2% of total U.S. outward FDI stock), and Russia’s FDI stock in the United States was $4.9 billion (0.1% of total U.S. inward FDI stock). Top sectors for U.S. FDI in Russia are manufacturing and wholesale trade, and U.S. affiliate activity there supported over 206,000 workers in 2020.
Issues for Congress
对美国国会的议题
随着美国国会监督和考虑对俄罗斯在乌克兰的行动采取额外的立法对策，议员们可能会考虑的关键问题包括：
鉴于俄罗斯在大宗商品市场之外的经济足迹相对较小，美国在双边贸易关系或多边贸易关系中的影响力有哪些？
战争和制裁对全球贸易体系的影响能在多大程度上继续得到遏制，并避免全球经济危机？政策制定者应该采取哪些步骤来支持受影响的国家？
制裁和反制裁措施最终将如何改变上述经济趋势？制裁目前如何影响地区和全球贸易流动？
As Congress oversees and contemplates additional legislative responses to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, key issues that Members may consider include
Given Russia’s relatively small economic footprint outside commodity markets, what are points of U.S. leverage in bilateral trade ties or multilaterally?
To what extent can the impacts of the war and sanctions on the global trading system continue to be contained and a global economic crisis averted? What steps should policymakers take to support affected countries?
How will sanctions and countermeasures ultimately alter the economic trends discussed above? How are sanctions currently affecting regional and global trade flows?
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Updated January 17, 2023
Andres B. Schwarzenberg, Analyst in International Trade and Finance
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12066#:~:text=Russia%E2%80%99s%20significance%20in%20the%20global,11th%20largest%20in%20the%20world