【2023年度策略：布局A股高质量投资】
一、2023年A股走势朝乐观方向演绎。
1、盈利角度。
当政策回暖与股市下行“相遇”时，往往是股市筑底回升的起点，2022Q4~2023Q3期间A股盈利增速大概率企稳回升。
2、流动性角度。
国内短端利率趋势性收紧，但今年制约A股的海外流动性因素预计在2023年有所缓解。
3、风险情绪角度。
A股风险偏好触及历史下边界，在疫情影响逐步退潮、海外加息逐渐减速甚至转向的组合下有望开启投资情绪回暖。
4、综合以上三点，2023年A股市场整体走向较为乐观。
二、把握结构性机会：高端制造业将是未来的逻辑主线。
1、2009年以来的A股逻辑主线可以划分三阶段：
1）第一阶段从2009年到2014年，投资驱动板块表现优于大势；
2）第二阶段从2015年到2019年，大消费板块领跑；
3）第三阶段是2020年以来，A股的逻辑主线向以电力设备、国防军工、机械设备为首的高端制造业切换。
4）实施产业基础再造工程和重大技术装备攻关工程，支持专精特新企业发展，推动制造业高端化、智能化、绿色化发展。
2、高端制造业受益于政策红利催化，成为未来几年投资布局主线。
3、从疫情退潮阶段全球各市场股市经验中可以发现，各市场在行业轮动上并没有统一经验遵循。
4、但新兴产业凭借盈利稳定、资本开支空间大的特点，具备实现穿越周期的先行优势。
三、行业配置：高质量发展。
1、从高质量可持续、高质量创新和高质量运行三个方面对上市公司予以评估。
2、医药生物、计算机、国防军工、基础化工等行业符合高质量发展的内涵。
3、从行业发展趋势看，医药生物、计算机、国防军工、电子、通信等行业处在“卡脖子”关键领域。
4、能源清洁化的目标下，部分上*行游**业从成本效应转为盈利效应；技术革新迭代和消费场景扩展升级下的美护行业近年来也有上行。
四、主题投资：高质量发展下的A股投资路径选择。
1、高质量发展下的主题投资机遇主要集中在安全观视角下的“卡脖子”领域国产替代、数字经济和专精特新三条主线上。
2、国家安全能力建设新要求驱动下，基于总体国家安全观的五位一体安全体系衍生出全新产业传导和赛道受益逻辑。
3、"卡脖子”细分技术领域集中在8大新兴产业，包括计算机、半导体、电池电源、先进复合材料、高端机械制造、机器人、医药、航空航天。
4、伴随产业政策持续发力，上述领域的国产化率有望提升。
5、数字经济政策持续颁布，产业数字化转型已成阶段性共识，数据资产化存在较强发展潜力，可在技术渗透+产业渗透两条线索下寻觅优质赛道。
6、目前中国专精特新企业聚焦十大重点产业，新材料占比始终领先，信息技术“小巨人”愈发受重视。
（唐加文）
[2023 Annual Strategy: Layout of A-share High Quality Investment].
First, the trend of A-shares in 2023 is interpreted in an optimistic direction.
1. earnings perspective.
When the policy rebound and stock market downside "meet", is often the starting point of the stock market bottoming out, 2022Q4 ~ 2023Q3 period A-share earnings growth rate is likely to stabilize and rebound.
2. liquidity perspective.
Domestic short-end interest rates trend tightening, but this year's constraints on A shares overseas liquidity factors are expected to ease in 2023.
3. risk sentiment perspective.
A-share risk appetite touched the lower boundary of history, in the combination of the gradual ebb of the impact of the epidemic, overseas interest rate hikes gradually decelerate or even turn is expected to open up a rebound in investment sentiment.
4. a combination of the above three points, the overall direction of the A-share market in 2023 is more optimistic.
Second, grasp the structural opportunities: high-end manufacturing will be the main line of logic in the future.
1. since 2009, the main line of A-share logic can be divided into three stages.
1) the first stage from 2009 to 2014, investment-driven sectors outperformed the general trend.
2) the second stage from 2015 to 2019, the big consumption sectors lead the way.
3) the third stage is since 2020, the main line of logic of A shares to the electric power equipment, defense industry, machinery and equipment as the first high-end manufacturing industry switch.
4) the implementation of industrial foundation reengineering project and major technology and equipment research project, support the development of specialized and special new enterprises, and promote the development of high-end manufacturing, intelligent and green.
2. high-end manufacturing industry benefits from the policy dividend catalyst, become the main line of investment layout in the next few years.
3. from the epidemic ebb phase of the global stock market experience can be found in the various markets in the industry rotation and no uniform experience to follow.
4. but emerging industries with stable earnings, capital expenditure space, with the first advantage of achieving through the cycle.
Third, industry allocation: high-quality development.
1. from high-quality sustainable, high-quality innovation and high-quality operation of the three aspects of listed companies to assess.
2. pharmaceutical and biological, computer, defense industry, basic chemicals and other industries meet the connotation of high-quality development.
3. from the industry development trend, pharmaceutical and biological, computer, defense industry, electronics, communications and other industries in the "neck" key areas.
4. under the goal of clean energy, part of the upstream industry from the cost effect to profitability effect; technological innovation iteration and consumer scene expansion and upgrading of the beauty care industry in recent years has also been upward.
Fourth, the theme of investment: high-quality development under the A-share investment path selection.
1. high-quality development under the theme of investment opportunities are mainly concentrated in the security perspective of the "neck" field of domestic substitution, digital economy and specialized special new three main lines.
2. driven by the new requirements of national security capacity building, based on the overall national security concept of the five security system derived from a new industry conduction and track benefit logic.
3. the "neck" segmentation technology areas concentrated in eight emerging industries, including computers, semiconductors, battery power, advanced composite materials, high-end machinery manufacturing, robotics, medicine, aerospace.
4. along with industrial policies continue to force, the above areas of localization rate is expected to improve.
5. the digital economy policy continues to promulgate, the digital transformation of industry has become a stage consensus, there is a strong potential for the development of data assets, can be in the technology penetration + industry penetration of the two clues to find quality track.
6. At present, China's specialized and special new enterprises focus on ten key industries, with new materials always taking the lead and information technology "small giants" receiving more and more attention.
[Please be advised that I have not received, do not receive, and will not receive any compensation of any kind, directly or indirectly, for the specific opinions or views expressed in this article]
【敬请周知：本人不曾因，不因，也将不会因本文中的具体主张意见或观点而直接或间接接收到任何形式的任何报酬】
