Iran's strikes on Israel over the weekend sparked a fresh wave of fears over oil supply disruptions, but the International Energy Agency foresees a global slump in oil demand amid a host of factors set to weigh on the market through the rest of 2024.
伊朗上周末对以色列的袭击引发了对石油供应中断的新一轮担忧，但国际能源机构预计，在一系列因素的影响下，全球石油需求将在2024年剩余时间内下滑。
The group slashed its forecast by about 100,000 barrels per day to 1.2 million barrels, attributing it to "exceptionally weak OECD deliveries," "the completion of the post-Covid rebound," and an expanding fleet of electric vehicles, according to a report released on Friday.
据周五发布的一份报告称，该集团将预测值下调了约 10 万桶/天，降至 120 万桶/天，原因是 "经合组织的交付量异常疲软"、"科维德事件后反弹的完成 "以及电动汽车车队的不断扩大。
With the COVID-19 recovery having run its course, the IEA projects a further slowdown in oil demand expansion to 1.1 million barrels a day in 2025, with most non-OPEC countries driving supply growth thanks to output curbs among OPEC members, while OECD states see their oil consumption decline by 60,000 barrels a day in both 2024 and 2025.
由于 COVID-19 的复苏已经结束，国际能源署预计 2025 年石油需求的扩张将进一步放缓至每天 110 万桶，由于欧佩克成员国的产量限制，大多数非欧佩克国家将推动供应增长，而经合组织国家在 2024 年和 2025 年的石油消费量将每天减少 6 万桶。
The agency's reduced forecast for demand arrives amid simmering tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, which have stirred up concerns of potential supply snags and a further surge in oil prices.
以色列和伊朗在中东地区的紧张局势一触即发，引发了对潜在供应障碍和油价进一步飙升的担忧，因此该机构下调了需求预测。
Toril Bosoni, head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, said on CNBC's "Street Signs Europe" that the surging sales of electric vehicles, particularly in China, Europe, and the United States, are putting a dent in global oil demand.
国际能源署石油工业和市场部负责人托里尔-博索尼在 CNBC 的 "欧洲街景 "节目中说，电动汽车销量的激增，尤其是在中国、欧洲和美国，正在对全球石油需求造成冲击。
"There has been a lot of talk about sales not increasing as much as maybe was expected, but EV sales and increased fuel efficiencies in the car fleet is lowering gasoline demand, at least in advanced economies and particularly in China," she said."
她说："很多人都在谈论销量的增长可能不如预期，但电动汽车的销售和汽车燃油效率的提高正在降低汽油需求，至少在发达经济体，尤其是在中国。
Meanwhile, following Iran's attacks against Israel over the weekend, Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni predicted an 11% spike in Brent crude prices to $100 a barrel, evoking memories of the 1970s energy crises and the ensuing economic turmoil.
与此同时，在伊朗上周末袭击以色列之后，华尔街资深人士埃德-亚德尼预测布伦特原油价格将飙升 11%，达到每桶 100 美元，这不禁让人想起 20 世纪 70 年代的能源危机和随之而来的经济动荡。
The IEA's Bosoni said there are numerous pain points she's keeping tabs on in today's oil market, which could potentially lead to "significant outages."
国际能源署的博索尼说，她一直在关注当今石油市场的许多痛点，这些痛点有可能导致 "重大停产"。
"The continued tanker attacks in the Red Sea is of key concern, but also escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, and then we're seeing tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue, with attacks on Russian refineries," she said."
她说："在红海持续发生的油轮袭击事件令人严重关切，伊朗和以色列之间的紧张局势也在升级，俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的紧张局势也在持续，俄罗斯的炼油厂遭到袭击。
West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 0.74% to $85.03 per barrel as of Monday 1:30 pm, while Brent was down 0.74% to $89.78 a barrel.
截至周一下午1:30，西德克萨斯中质原油下跌0.74%，至每桶85.03美元；布伦特原油下跌0.74%，至每桶89.78美元。